Labour Gains Ground
Latest poll results show a gain of 10 seats by Labour but don't forget the voter disenfranchisement laws and NZME's Editorial Direction is still to come
Curia and TPU, which I’ve consistently said has reasonable public comparable, political polling data, despite its history, shows:
Labour gaining 12 seats
National lose 10 seats
Greens lose 2 seats
NZ First gaining 5 seats
ACT lose 1 seat
TPM lose 2 seats
That makes for a 61 to 59 majority for the left.
But if you factor in National’s voter disenfranchisement laws1, that have consistently seen National lose 2-3 seats from, and could now be reversed, that makes it tenuous.
Victoria Director Consulting’s Smith also notes that Labour and Greens alone are closing ranks on the Coalition.
We would want to see the Green Party extend their voter base if possible here.
We are also looking for consistent trends and most polls are still waivering on the line.
To date, we’ve seen consistency in NZ First gaining popularity, TPM support not recovering after their internal implosion, and Labour methodically gaining ground.
Comparable to the IPSOS poll, Curia/TPU have Labour ahead on 8 out of 10 major issues, including inflation, taxes and health.
The former two are the ones National and ACT have been hitting Labour the hardest on too.
In this version of the poll, and in contrast to IPSOS, National are seen as better on the economy (IPSOS had Labour beating National on the economy last time, and on equal footing this month)
TPU also have an odd category called spending which they say National is better at, which is TPU’s primary agenda and talking point so can be in my view ignored - the related angles are already covered in economy and taxes.
Minor party polling trends
This poll shows why NZ First strategists have been trying to take votes from ACT. ACT is weak/stagnant and on the left, the Green Party could see more momentum.
Most important things to remember right now:
It’s still 8 months out from the election
Many Kiwis are finding themselves de-registered on the Electoral roll. Make sure you and your friends are enrolled to vote and double check it.
Don’t under-estimate the pure unadultered fire power and resources of the right, that typically outnumber the left 10 to 1.
In the 2023 election, a number of American / anonymous organisations registered to run attack ads against Labour and the Green Party - expect more this time.
The voter disenfranchisement law, passed under urgency, is significant to the odds of National winning
Stay active in your communities and play whichever role you find drawn to if you’re engaged in politics.
Related:
Includes prisoners of any term not being able to vote even as homeless can be imprisoned, as well as disallowing special votes early on in the voting period etc
The PM bumbled his way through the interview about NZ's stance on the USA Israel Iran war. He has been criticised right, left and centre - and rightly so. Even M Hooton in the Herald said the PM was a threat to national security. But what gets me is W Peters hasn't been any clearer about NZ's stance but seems to have avoided criticism. He said "you should have asked me first" and that it is a new world, things are different now and Iran had active terror cells all over the world. So what's his/our position? I think he is being disingenuous and continuing his cosy up to Trump. He wants to dazzle us all with enigmatic statements of the "I know best" kind. I hope people don't fall for it.
This is great Tui. Timely warnings as well ; There's been a lot of Labouractivity with campaign launches, door knocking for enrolment, phoning etc. But you're right about the voter gerrymandering and huge money for the right. For us, it's little by little fundraiser by fundraiser, and cottage meetings. And vote by vote.