Today's 10 Politics Headlines: Luxon flails and Simeon Drives

1/ Jobseeker numbers are going the opposite way of Luxon’s KPIs. Against a target of minus 50,000 by 2030, the new forecast shows the Government is looking at an increase of 24,000 jobseekers in its first term.

In Thomas Coughlin’s report, Upton responds by blaming Labour: “We inherited an economy in the grip of a cost-of-living crisis from Labour and rising unemployment is one of the lingering after-effects. Turning this around won’t be easy, but we are ambitious.”

Note: Jobseeker targets under the Luxon led government include the ~42% on health and disability.

2/ Luxon is making headlines today for blowing his cool when asked by Benedict Collins why the government was reducing numbers on the gang list. Gang list numbers were unceasingly used by National in opposition to justify why Labour “is weak on crime”.

National and NZME touted this constantly when Labour was in government. Here is Mitchell in 2022 with NZME’s Rachel Maher highlighting an explosion in gang numbers.

Mitchell: Clearly, Labour are “soft on crime” and have “failed to keep gangs under control, and tougher measures are needed to get on top of the problem.”

Despite being told by Labour and police it was not absolute proof of crime management nor gang numbers, National persisted in attacking Labour as ‘soft on crime’ with the gang list. So it was rich to see Luxon and Mitchell defend the gang list yesterday as unimportant and not necessarily always accurate.

Note: Dirty politics harms everyone - PLUS: As a regular observer of Luxon at press conferences, I can assure you he frequently gets angry and goes on the attack when faced with evidence or questions he doesn’t like. This is why the term “bully pulpit” frequently emerges in my mind when watching him in action.

3/ Kiwirail rail plans - RNZ’s Samantha Gee reports that unions, community groups, businesses, and researchers are all calling on the government to ensure new ferries are sufficiently and appropriately rail enabled. The cancelled i-Rex ferries had 40 rail wagons. There is significant concern the government is going with smaller ferries and reduced capacity. Reduced or zero rail facilities will load millions of extra freight costs per year onto businesses. It will also increase carbon emissions by 2.7 - 4 times more. EY has produced a report showing rail creates $3.3bn of value to NZ including lower freight costs, reduced congestion, decreased fuel costs, and less accidents/road deaths.

Note: Cancellation costs for the fixed price i-Rex ferries are now edging close to $1bn. And Willis ignored MFAT advice to ensure “careful and deliberate” communications with the South Korean government. Instead, a text was sent to the Ambassador 26 minutes prior to the cancellation.

I have watched Luxon answer questions on Kiwirail during recent press conferences and his answers are quite cagey.

4/ Defence force is getting more budget cuts. Lucy Xia (RNZ) - the government intends to cut more from the civilian workforce to stay within budget. ~200 voluntary redundancies were accepted yesterday, but a restructure and more cuts are planned for early 2025. The rationale is “achieving efficiencies, removing duplications and making operation savings.”

This is against the backdrop of black mould military housing which the government says it just doesn’t have enough money to fix. RNZ’s questions regarding the financial implications of the fix went to Chris Penk and Nicola Willis. Willis then directed RNZ to an OIA process instead.

Note: Luxon has spoke gravely of security and defence pressures in the region. So it appears antithetical to continue cutting into our defence forces and ignore black mould housing. It also cuts into morale when attrition is already very high, not to mention health and safety, and fair treatment.

5/ 120 Wellington families lose access to respite care support, but Ministers Reti and Doocey say it’s not a cut. Akkeke Smith (RNZ) reports that 120 full time carers have had their funds removed after the government said only Community Services Card holders would now qualify for support.

Minister Reti and Minister Doocey both denied these were cuts, pointing out the $95,000 money still remains. Both Labour and the Greens have called the government out, sayinig if people cannot access those funds anymore, it’s a cut.

Note: When asked, Doocey said he only learned about this change recently. Doocey has a pattern of not-knowing or not doing his homework. For example, Doocey didn’t bother to read the interim report on abuse in care, despite being responsible for making recommendations.

6/ Chief Ombudsman Peter Boshier has formally notified the Chief Archivist regarding Casey Costello’s handling of pro-tobacco policy documents. Boshier wrote in his report he has "taken the rare step of notifying the chief archivist about the record keeping issues". Guyon Espinor says the chief archivist has a range of powers to examine matters relating to record keeping, under the Public Records Act. The Ombudsman was critical of Costello.

And while Costello maintains she doesn’t know who wrote her document, she has hinted "the likely source was a political party staffer or volunteer". She also told the Ombudsman it was a copy and paste from prior to the NZ Coalition government agreement. However, “RNZ has the full document and it contains excerpts from the coalition agreement - so the document was clearly finished after the government was formed.”

Note: The absolute brazenness of this deception and what looks to be corruption is breathtaking, and not least for the lack of consequences. It is noteworthy that NZ does not have a corruption investigation body like other jurisdictions.

7/ The Maori wards forced referendum will cost $~2mn, Newsroom’s Fox Meyer ($$ Paywall) reports. “Over half the total money that must be spent on local referendums on Māori seats will be shouldered by councils that didn’t record a single vote against the ward”

8/ Health NZ is reporting increased clinician numbers. Corazon Miller (1 News) reports that 2580 more nurses have been hired from June 2023 to June 2024. This echoes the reporting of Marc Daalder in Newsroom who reported that the “unexpected deficit” reported by the Luxon Government was closely tied to the success of the nursing drive. Overall increase was 4167. However, frontline workers have disputed this noting that it is not reflecting population demand nor the reality on the ground. "This year specifically, all we are hearing is a limitation on budgets, and we haven't been able to fill roles.” And 1News notes: data via the Official Information Act showed that, in July, there were 90 wards across the network that were understaffed 50% of the time.

Note: DaveP makes the excellent comment that current doctors’ collective agreements have been reworked to include less hours - which means more doctor FTEs are needed. These are the details that are lacking when looking at absolute numbers. More info here

9/ Simeon Brown has announced new vans will now travel across the country to study pot holes and road conditions. Brown: "These vans will provide consistent, high quality surface condition data at a scale never seen in New Zealand before, replacing the inefficient and manual on-the-ground inspections currently happening in many locations across the country.”

Enough said.

10/ Shane Jones continues to move towards long term fossil fuel contracts and primary industry consents. Marc Daalder ($$ Paywall) for Newsroom notes: “The Māui gas contract locked the government into 30 years of buying gas it didn’t need, but Shane Jones sees it as a model to incentivise new offshore drilling”.

Note: Jones appears big on securing certainty for friends, donors and favoured business interests. In March, he proposed to extend all fisheries consents to up to 25 years, bypassing critical consent processes and environmental checks and balances despite strong warnings. The bill’s first reading has gone through and Jones amended the extension period to 20 years. Fisheries is one of NZ First’s largest donors.

Image: Rob Dickinson Prints

Happy weekend, folks. The above photo is from Rob Dickinson and shows the beauty in the world all around us.

Cheers!

Tui