Luxon's Polling Takes A Beating
As New Trend Line Point Emerges.
The latest polls are in.
And who could have guessed that a government that destroys the economy (‘economic vandalism on steroids’), tears up our public health system (‘National is BAD for health’), de-stabilises Crown-Māori relations (‘largest protest in modern history’), eviscerates environmental progress and protections (‘short sighted & costly’) and is led by a wet puppet who will be gone by the time the next election rolls around (‘dead man walking’) is starting to lose its shine…..
Chris Bishop must be ironing his suit in preparation for the interview soon.
But things are not rosy:
27,000 more to be unemployed by Christmas time and 30,000 more on job seekers within a year - 8000 just in the last 3 months - all with a master-stroke that only the Luxon led Coalition government could achieve.
The government forecasts the total number on jobseekers to rise to 214,000 in 2025 - well above Luxon’s 50,000 net reduction to 140,000 KPI for 2030.
And unemployment continues to trend up -
If only someone had warned them….
Never fear.
70,000 on jobseekers will receive individualised job plans and attention, and that includes expectations to move to another region if it’s deemed reasonable by the case manager.
Beneficiary bashing started early under National/ACT.
“The free ride is over” said Luxon last month, echoing the catch call he and Louise Upton started in 2022.
But nothing like demoralising speech and uninspiring choices in an evaporating job market to force Kiwis to leave.
Add on top of that, trying to game and tear down the public health system, and creating an insecure and unstable job market with declining / zero workers’ protection and rights (“Fire at will is back!” ) - who wouldn’t consider a better country?
Year to date, the equivalent of the entire city of Palmerston North has left for better pastures.
That’s 220 Kiwis a day who are leaving NZ permanently - and the numbers continue to rise.
All this is laying the seeds of our waste:
According to Treasury, in the 1960s, for every person aged 65 and over, we had 7 people aged 15 to 64 to support us.
Presently, there are 4.
In 50 years there will be 2.
This means that we are working on borrowed time, and the future is no longer sustainable - nor is our tax take or future commitments.
Keeping and retaining our young, mobile, professional, experienced and motivated, and building for the future, should be this government’s work.
Instead, it is too busy pandering to vested interests1 including those who don’t like how Māori rights under Te Tiriti hinder their development and acquisition plans.
Back on track is more like on a horse pile…
And the voters are starting to sense it.
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows Te Pati Maori on par with ACT at 9%, and the left wing bloc forming a government over the National-NZ First-ACT coalition.
It is the highest polling result for TPM - clearly Seymour’s cunning plan is working wonders.
ACT and NZ First’s seat wins are steady, but National are hemorrhaging support - a 12 seat loss if an election was held today.
Roy Morgan reports:
Older men are now the only gender and age group supporting the governing coalition.
60% of men aged 50+ support National/ ACT/ NZ First, over 20% points ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 36%.
Support for NZ First (14.5%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
And in terms of the gender divide:
On an overall basis women are heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 54.5% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 40.5% - a gap of 14% points.
In contrast, on an overall basis men narrowly favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 48.5% with a small lead over the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 46% - a gap of 2.5% points
It’s not all bad news for National though:
Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased 18 points to 104 – the first time more New Zealanders say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ instead of the ‘wrong direction’ since January 2022 nearly three years ago
That just didn’t translate into votes…so maybe it is bad news.
BTW the graph below shows the recent polling results (bar yesterday’s November’s Roy Morgan bump).
All but the questionable Curia Market Research shows the opposition is gaining ground and even ahead.
This analysis from Freshwater Strategy on Monday highlights that all three Coalition partner leaders are losing significant ground in personal popularity, -16, -22, -24 for Luxon, Peters and Seymour respectively.
From here, a quick call out to the ongoing efforts by ACT and far right surrogates to continue sowing a culture of emotional anger, distrust of media, and cultural right wing talking points in NZ.
21% of Kiwis in the above poll have a favorable view of Donald Trump, which is fairly on par with David Seymour’s 23% positive rating.
Can Luxon turn it around?
As Wayne Brown’s advisors know, PR and well placed articles can work miracles, and two years is still a long time in politics.
A lot will depend on the economy’s potential turnaround in 2027 - but the age of Trump will see new dynamics and economic models, something Luxon and his team appear thoroughly unprepared for.
The government gambling on reversing fresh water protections from agriculture, shielding agriculture from ETS, bringing back live animal exports, hustling around fossil fuel, and privatisation just isn’t likely to bring the economy revving back.
One - these are either low GDP contributors and/or sunset industries.
Two, privatisation is short sighted and a largely failed experiment - especially when it comes to key infrastructure like health and water.
Talking about short sighted - within one week, this government will finally make their long deferred announcement on ferries, after pissing away $500m - $1bn on its ill-advised i-Rex cancellation.
Willis previously said that decision would come in July.
Nicola Willis will also have to give a half year Finance update this month.
What’s clear though, besides Luxon’s red neck when facing off to Jack Tame, is Luxon won’t make the final cut.
To his backers, he is more of a liability than an asset.
What I would say to you is the writing is on the wall. But we all make mistakes, so that’s not the main issue.
However, not everyone of us is so proud of the hurt and pain. Nor so willing to paper it under marketing slogans and soundbites.
What I would say to you, Prime Minister, is Tame was right - you’ve revealed to us your character, morality, negotiation skills, and your levels of economic literacy.
And it's all …. not so good.
Related Reading:
This includes tobacco companies, fossil fuels, property developers, fisheries.
As the opposition improves in the ratings we have to be prepared for the right and their media lackeys to up their game - they have everything to lose (and Atlas Network would not be happy). It is time for Labour especially to communicate clearly and loudly!
We should now welcome those voters back to the Left, who were fooled by a huge expensive and divisive election campaign. They were in a financial struggle, dealing with cost of living pressures caused by a world wide and local covid spend. Then, instead of helping with the cost of living as promised in the campaign, Coc decided to raise the funding for water through rates from Councils, doing away with Three Waters Planning, which added to the cost of living.
Further, Insurance firms swamped by Cyclone Gabrielle and Auckland floods, re-evaluated risk, and raised insurances hugely, with little oversight by Government. Then the Jenga game of stop destroy remove all progress made by Labour. Almost all worker rights removed in short order. followed by cancelling the Rail Heads and Ferries, redirecting money put aside for Housing Health Education, and Science money. The real tipping point was the attack on Maori Wards, as most Councils were shocked to find they would be up for a hundred thousand dollars to keep a working model. A full on removal of one of our three official languages Maori from documents, followed by the dismantling of all health initiatives for Maori, a bad Bill put forward by Seymour, and underwritten by Luxon as a six month exercise to "seal" his Coc deal is designed to fundamentally change Crown Maori Relationships developed by The Waitangi Tribunal and Te Tiriti and New Zealand Courts and by practice and custom. This incensed Maori, who arranged huge Hui in response. The reckless Government pushed the first reading of Seymour's Bill through. This caused a natural cry of outrage by Hana with a stunning lead into a haka all Left Mps stood and supported. This meant The Taniwha of anger and community was united in supporting the biggest Hikoi in NZ History. New Zealanders rallied support and welcomed and many joined the last part. Now we see the polls swinging hugely, as so many bad policies and promotions are revealed anger has become action. I think CoC will panic, but with few real Leaders in their pack, Bishop looks one of their best. Lord what a choice. Ego or ego we hope they all go in 2026. They have wrecked 80 000 lives to the point they have left the country. They have dismantled Public Services, trying to bring them back to 2017 levels, and now they are scrabbling picking on the unemployed. They are clearly the worst Government ever with the economy in a dive.
I feel better for that rant Mountain Tui, 6 days of RSV chest infection and this rotten lot has made me feisty. Go the Left Movement. We need to work together to chuck them out. Not just their Luxon. We will do that by offering community and innovation, building on our growing maturity towards tikanga. We need a Government who governs for all, and avoids excesses by the powerful. Thank you for your excellent platform. Patricia Bremner.