For the children - Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unexpected consequences for all of us

National's flagship $5million military style boot camp pilot is almost ready and Chhour and Seymour were on hand to sell it

National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’

Introduction

This weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years.

Cartoon credit: Guy Body

It’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, and voters, who think it will help to reduce crime and keep unruly people off of our streets. i.e. It’s a real vote winner, and Luxon and co. know it.

When there is negative press around National, Luxon frequently wheels Mark Mitchell out to make an announcement the next day on how National will be tough on crime. This government consistently exceeds at understanding the importance of image, PR and controlling the media’s narrative.

And there is nothing wrong with communications. It’s a valid and core part of any government. What’s important is the consistency between communication and action.

The Government’s rhetoric on law and order does not appear to be matching up in practice

The old adage “put your money where your mouth is” is more than appropriate here for those who seriously care about community safety, and law and order.

From cutting police budgets, to leaving police with a damaging fiscal cliff next year, to apparently fudging police # increases, to front line customs officer cuts, to indifference to water coolers being removed in police districts despite low morale, to demonstrating indifference when told paedophile investigators will be cut, to winning a public fight with police on pay arbitration as the police force leaks experienced officers - leaving officers “embittered” and angry, this Government doesn’t seem to care about the details and likely outcomes on the street - only the optics.

This weekend, RNZ reports that police “constabulary staffing numbers fell by 124, not including vacancies, from February to 24 June.” And 1News revealed 322 Kiwi cops have already applied to Australia over the last year after aggressive campaigning from the Aussies.

That’s over 120 frontline cops who have left in short succession, and many more in the pipeline. Reports confirmed 138 Kiwi police are already in the Australian recruitment pipeline, and that’s only a temporary number. While the force always has attrition, this rate is higher than usual.

Just over a year ago, June 2023, Ginny Anderson was boasting about 1800 more frontline cops in the New Zealand police force, bringing the cop to Kiwi ratio to 1:480 in New Zealand (It was 1:544 under John Key).

It didn’t take long for things to go from complaint though to crisis. The Police Association frequently voiced criticisms of Labour during its term, highlighting frontline officer numbers and pay. 67% of police voted to reject Labour’s pay offer in September 2023. The party of blue i.e. National, was about to form government and had outlined ambitious, seemingly bold plans to get crime back under control.

And in opposition, the Police Minister Mark Mitchell had promised that if Kiwis didn’t feel safer within a year of his leadership, he would resign. National came in strong and pro-police.

Today, police are angry, blindsided, demoralised and many are voting with their feet, after losing a bitter pay battle and police budget cuts continue to bite. Police Association President Chris Cahill says it’d unlikely the Government will meet its promise of 500 net new officers on the beat in two years, if the trend continues.

Vacancies already stand around 250, and with about 500 losses, to achieve the net 500 increase, National are going to have to do something drastic. Labour took two terms to achieve 1800 more.

Of course, Mark Mitchell already understood the challenges when he announced they couldn’t meet the 500 new police promise in January. But was promptly put back in place by his boss.

Anyway, as I wrote the other day regarding the government’s pay “win” against serving police, the real risk is we lose experienced officers, rural officers, community officers, and the government simultaneously weakens police criteria / training / standards to make up its numbers. Police have also said corruption may arise, as a result.

Then a few days ago, the police force announced changes to their eligibility criteria. They made changes like drivers license conditions, and will allow people on residence visas to apply to open up candidate pools. Those are the policy changes. However, the concerns on experience, quality, and integrity remain wide open as pressure to meet those numbers will be intense.

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Bill English once called our prisoner record “a moral and fiscal failure” - could we be heading that way?

No serious government can possibly imagine that simultaneous cuts to social services, police, customs, corrections, and justice, and making the poor poorer, and the disenfranchised feel even more isolated, is going to help law and order in this country.

On customs alone, loosening the pipelines into New Zealand, merely reinforces the need for more police, at a time when the government is stamping down on the force’s capacity and experience levels. On corrections, cutting their staff and budget means increasing contraband risks, criminal association and illegal activity, and prisoner safety.

Earlier this year, a lot was made of police stepping back from responding to family harm, mental health callouts as they were faced with significant budget cut backs, and increased expectations. However, there has been no visible, corresponding strategy - or budget increase - from this Government on how to increase funding and resources for mental health support and social services. This is despite significant family harm incidents in our community.

Law and order is a complex, multi-faceted cycle of dependencies and inter-relationships - it’s not a straight line. And that deserves recognition by a government who says they are pro-law and order.

Kaching

Let’s look at the money again - something National likes to emphasise as one of its core strengths.

Its 3 Strikes policy, youth boot camps, incarceration intentions, mega prison build (with big corporate money being inserted into our cornerstones of society - health, police, defence) etc, will all add significant costs. But also increased carceration and criminal justice loads.

Each prisoner now costs New Zealand taxpayers $193,000 per person. During the last National government, the prison population had been steadily increasing, with one of the highest rates of incarceration per capita in the OECD at 213 per 100,000 people. Māori were imprisoned at a rate six times higher than non-Māori, prolonging chains of abuse, trauma, and increasing chances of relapse.

Former National Minister Sir Bill English once called New Zealand’s incarceration levels a “moral and fiscal failure.” Sir Robert Kinsela Workman, a lifelong criminal justice advocate, elaborated on that statement in 2016:

“I was present at the Hui, and recall that moment very clearly. After making the statement, Bill English followed it up with a moving story of an 18 year old who committed driving offences, and ended up in prison for a short time. He described how that experience had destroyed his life, impaired his chances for future employment, and caused considerable distress to his family. His message was plain and clear; he wanted to find other ways of dealing with offenders, because prisons were prohibitively expensive, and had the capacity to destroy peoples’ lives…

If I was permitted to re-interpret Mr English’s comments, I would say that the recent plan to expand the prison estate is a financial failure, because it was done in the absence of an evidence based social investment strategy, something which the government is very keen on. It is a moral failure, because it will increase the level of social harm to mostly vulnerable and marginalised families, without reducing the level of victims in the community.”

Right now, our imprisonment rate is 173 people per 100,000.

This puts New Zealand more in line with comparable countries, including Australia at 157 per 100,000 people, and the United Kingdom and Wales at 145 per 100,000 people.

But perhaps as a demonstration that incarceration does not correlate to improved law and order, we can consider America. The United States is the unequivocal world leader in incarceration at 614 per 100,000.

In other words, increasing the cost to our society, not only financially, but morally, socially - while not only failing to address - but exacerbating - the root causes, and weakening our intervention bodies i.e. police, customs, corrections, justice, is not going to improve law and order in New Zealand.

Building mega prisons, backed by large multinational corporations to profit off of, aka United States style, should, in theory, be repulsive to every Kiwi who understands what this all means, and how it may not only not reduce crime, it may actively increase its severity, causal links, and prevalence.

Mark Mitchell couldn’t even get across his brief on the mega prison press release. The press later had to do his work for him:

Here are the corrected numbers: There are currently 455 beds at the prison, Labour's 600 will be ready for use next year and 810 will be added on top of those - bringing the capacity at Waikeria to 1865 beds. That's mega prison levels - basically what Labour cancelled when it came into Government 

This is supposed to be one of National's strong suits - crime, crackdowns and numbers.

Who is guiding the “Minister” and this government?

Writing in May for The Post, Crimonologist Liam Martin said::

The resulting prison complex will not only be isolated, but huge. Where Scandinavian prisons usually hold 50 to 100 prisoners, fostering a culture of familiarity and close relationships between staff and inmates, Waikeria is already expanding from 450 to 1000 men. Now the National Party wants to make it large enough for 1850 ‒ far and away the biggest prison in New Zealand history, approaching double the size of any other in the country.

Waikeria prison in rural Waikato is around 13km from Te Awamutu, and 45km from Hamilton City. It will put significant pressure on local infrastructure - 3 Waters, GPs, hospitals, police, all the things this Government is dare I say, neglecting and exacerbating.

Plus, the government already cut $100 million from the Corrections budget, even as it “invests” more in prisons and increased prisoner numbers.

Follow the Money

Who stands to profit from introducing such a culture into New Zealand?

Corrections is used for punitive purposes, but for the majority of transgressions, rehabilitation remains a core goal, if we are to serve the interests of the majority. Adding more Kiwis to the system is not an honourable goal, nor does it alleviate crime. In fact, as John Key’s Chief Science Advisor, Sir Professor Peter Gluckman noted “having a conviction has been shown to increase the likelihood of subsequent offending.”

Mega prisons appear antithetical to that and seem like fertile breeding grounds for escalation. One professor called mega prisons “crime schools.” Others have pointed out worse mental health outcomes, and that gangs use them as a prime opportunity to “entrench: their influence. Yet Mark Mitchell had the audacity to claim there are “no downsides.” The government shows time and time again it’s not interested in evidence based policy.

But who stands to profit?

In 2020, the New Zealand Government of the day announced privatisation of prisons is over. Clearly that has changed, with Honeywell, one of the partners building NZ’s mega prison right now, already soliciting further business and features for its prison “vision” in 2024.

Finally, the government has clearly signaled more prisoners, and more offenders, but as usual has not brought the government’s budget to bear on it:

The Law Society expressed its worry about whether sufficient resources would be available for the provision of timely and appropriate rehabilitative services if the Parole Amendment (Mandatory Completion of Rehabilitative Programmes) Bill was enacted.

Moreover, the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) highlighted a considerable increase in prison population since April 2023; both recent and intended changes to justice policy are likely to spur more uptick, with the reform of sentencing law being a specific factor. The Law Society indicated that funding would need to be go beyond that provided in Budget 2024.

A total of $68.7m in funds has also been set aside for 'Addressing Serious Youth Offending'. This is indicative of a “new legislative category in the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989” and the reinstatement of a “military-style academy pilot for Young Serious Offenders”.

The BEFU suggests this may result in an uptick in the number of young people designated as youth offenders, accompanied by rising costs associated with the Youth Court and youth justice residences. According to the Law Society, the costs associated with this increase could go beyond the 2024/25 budget.

It is preparing fiscal cliffs in police budgets, school lunches, and crime/corrections, even as it actively increases New Zealand’s need for it.

This brings me to the children.

For the children, right?

The evidence on military style boot camps is unequivocal

Luxon and his Coalition Government partners know how to spin a sympathetic and positive story to their actions.

• David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill is about “human rights,” and “dignity.” (Note: Seymour said the same for doctors before the election, but doctors’ dignity is now worth less than a third now he’s in Government)

• Nicola Willis’s budget cuts were about looking New Zealanders in the eye, and keeping her promise (don’t mind the extra $12bn she borrowed that weakens us considerably)

• Chris Penk’s rewinding of insulaton standards is just about getting Kiwis into homes (don’t mind the mould and draught, or the simple embarrassment of being the only civilised country to reverse house building standards, perhaps) and

• Chris Bishop is just trying to make homes affordable for the average Kiwi by granting easy, low diligence, consents over our greenfield and productive lands, to friendly developers (too much to cover here)

Both Luxon and ACT’s Chhour, the Childrens’ Minister, have argued that military style youth boot camps are about helping youths most in need.

Luxon says he’s “not giving up” on our children and Chhour has professed a seemingly heartfelt plea that she wants the best for our children. This reminded me of Brian Tamaki’s relative, Ford O’Connor. After being found guilty of painting over Auckland’s rainbow crossing earlier this year, O’Connor told a Youtube host that he did it “out of love for his children.”

Children are the ultimate heart puller, and can clamp down on any subsequent logical points - but sentiment alone will not help us guide our decisions, and may have unintended consequences for the children - and therefore, the rest of us.

On boot camps, Luxon has consistently argued he is doing something that hasn’t been done before - akin perhaps, to Paula Bennett stating in 2009, that the then National government would reboot “military-style activity camps,” and it would be “fundamentally different from past models.” (Spoiler: it was widely regarded as a failure too)

Yet despite youth camps’ enduring appeal to politicians, the evidence, and consensus over successive governments has been it’s been a failure. A moral failure, a financial failure, a traumatic failure, and a law and order policy failure.

Re-offending (‘recidivisism’) rates are between 85 - 94% within 2 years during the last National Party goverment trials. It is also more expensive, less effective than alternative measures, fails to address complex root causes, and importantly, strengthens criminal associations.

Luxon knows that -

Sir Gluckman found boot camps “do not work and ‘scared straight’ programmes have been shown to increase crime”.

Yes, increase crime.

And judging by his interview on Q&A last year was likely told the same by former Professor Sir Peter Gluckman.

Interestingly, Stuff this weekend featured the story of an offender put in an early youth boot camp. His time there led him to become one of the founding members of the Mongrel Mob.

And the stories of those who participated are invariably sad, with trauma piled onto trauma, and in many cases, making the offenders, stronger, fitter and more resilient within the criminal justice system.

Gluckman’s National government paper had many other interesting revelations. For example:

“Having a conviction has been shown to increase the likelihood of subsequent offending, particularly for those young people whose parents have a criminal conviction”

“Although those aged 15 to 24 years are only around 14% of the population, they account for as much as 40% of criminal-justice apprehensions.”

“The problems faced by those aged up to 25 years in the justice system are complex and multifaceted and require both short- and long-term solutions, that reach far beyond just the justice sector. Solutions to these problems need to be preventive in order to reduce the number entering the next cohort of potential young offenders.”

“Early-life poverty-related factors affect well being in many domains, including criminal-justice involvement: there is a higher prevalence of challenging behaviour in childhood among more economically deprived populations”

My overwhelming feeling in reviewing this detailed, comprehensive, and well considered paper is one of sadness.

It’s true that the problems are complex and require not only a willingness of the mind, but of the heart. A willingness to try to address problems like this are not for the faint hearted because they take time, commitment, and dedication to seeing them through the peaks and troughs of transformative change.

The other feeling is how noteworthy it was to have a Government that had a Chief Science Advisor. John Key gave Professor Sir Gluckman the ability to independently provide advice and publish it on the public record. That by itself, distinguishes him from the current National Party who have been busy cutting roles and people that won’t sing their tune.

Cost of the military style boot camps

The government’s first pilot program will cost $5,100,000 for 10 youths. I have no doubt they will be deeply supervised to ensure they are a ‘success.’

The National / ACT / NZ First government has recently put bids out to tender, paying ~$100,000 per youth for mentor services, as part of that program.

The investment represents an initial outlay of $525,000 per youth and will be a 12 month program. One has to wonder whether that outlay would be more successful in what Gluckman called more successful measures, points backed up by successive government and departmental reports over the years. Wrap around services have been proven to work, and cost less, but they are not being funded.

Why?

However, there is no telling that to the Prime Minister. When asked about the Chief Childrens’ Commissioner pointing out military style camps should be avoided with children, Luxon, presumably without an answer, went on the attack,

“I am going to do things differently to get a different result…"I don't care what you say about whether it does or doesn't work. We can have that intellectual conversation all day long, but we are, dammit, going to try something different because we cannot carry on getting the results that we've been getting.”

He’s been presented evidence over and over again as we’ve seen.

What is also mildly disconcerting is that the present day National Government didn’t even have the ingenuity to come up with something new. Instead these ‘new’ ideas are just recycled from the last Bill English campaign from 2017:

It’s a pretty unserious government, but the consequences of all their decisions could be very serious.

Scorecard

• 0 New Zealand

• 1 Mega international conglomerates

• -1 Rehabilitation and law and order

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New feature: Introducing the MTMM

The MOUNTAIN TUI MISINFORMATION AND MISUNDERSTANDING CARD (MTMM)

#1 Myth: New Zealand should put more people in prison

Fact: There are around 170 people in prison per 100,000 New Zealanders, compared to the OECD average of around 147 prisoners per 100,000 people. (Source: Ministry of Justice 2023) 
We peaked at about 215 per 100,000 and Bill English acknowledged it was a "moral and fiscal failure" because it was not working to reduce crime. Research has shown early intervention is key and there are strong, causal links to trauma and poverty in those who commit crimes.

More facts for conservative friends and family: As confirmed by John Key's Chief Science Advisor, Sir Peter Gluckman, New Zealand’s prison
population is proportionally one of the highest in the OECD. The cost per prisoner is approximately $200,000. USA has an incarceration rate of over 600 per 100,000 people yet its crime levels are both higher and more serious. 


#2 Myth: Putting these troubled youths away helps society

Fact: Re-offending rates are usually 85-94% within two years. Studies confirm there are more effective, and less expensive ways to help youths. 

More facts for conservative friends and family: The pilot program will cost $5.1mn - representing $525,000 per youth. It has failed every time it's been implemented despite being trialed for over 50 years.