A Lipstick Government
Social services, no-cause evictions, terror of job cuts over Christmas, and putting lipstick on new laws.
Here’s a quick round up of today’s political news:
1. MORE FOOD BANKS, CHARITIES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE SHELTERS AND YOUTH SOCIAL SERVICES SET TO CLOSE OR SCALE BACK AROUND THE COUNTRY AS GOVT CUTS FUNDING
Some of Auckland's largest foodbanks are warning they may need to close or significantly reduce food parcels after the government indicated it will not fund them next year.
Auckland City Missioner Helen Robinson said it had asked the coalition government for annual funding so it could keep providing 50,000 food parcels in 2025 - but that looked unlikely.
"I'm worried. I know hundreds of thousands of Aucklanders rely on the mission for food and I know what it means when people don't have enough food."
Unemployment is near a 4 year record high in New Zealand, and economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
Other charities also face imminent closure. This includes North Shore Womens’ Shelter, Buttabean Motivation in Auckland.
Others have to shut down programs - including Te Tahi in Christchurch, Womens’ Services, and the national Family Start that assists childrens’ health and well-being at home.
Stand Tū Māia (Stand for Children), the 100 year old Northland charity, which serves 4000 at risk children a year is also facing closure. The PSA (Public Service Association) noted:
Children’s Minister Karen Chhour needs to reverse the Government’s funding cuts putting at risk the jobs of more than 300 frontline workers providing vital care for 4000 vulnerable children.
After threatening the government with legal action for reneging on its contract, by wanting to cancel Stand for Children 6 months into a 3 year term, Childrens’ Minister Karen Chhour agreed to extend funding to the charity to April 2025.
Amidst all of this, ACT Minister Karen Chhour is, predictably, “unapologetic.”
The closures and warnings comes amidst revelations that domestic violence around the country continues to spike. Domestic abuse service provider Shine is planning for a 30% surge in national demand over Christmas.
It also comes as The Green Party notes that the government’s own metrics target for more children in poverty than today.
Green Party’s spokesperson for Social Development, Ricardo Menéndez March:
The Government’s child poverty targets under this new measure aim to have 10 per cent of children in poverty by 2028. The problem with this is that our current rate against this measure is 9.4 per cent.
2. GOVT’S $1.3b FAMILY VIOLENCE FUNDING REVIEW COULD SEE MORE SOCIAL SERVICE PROVIDERS BEING CUT
Yesterday, Karen Chhour announced plans to reduce sexual and family violence. Ginny Andersen, Labour spokesperson noted it was unclear how successful the government had been in it's plan to reduce family and sexual violence rates - as no metrics or data was provided as part of their press release.
There are also concerns that the government will use this as an excuse for another cost-cutting exercise for the $1.3b of spend on family and sexual violence service and contracts.
The plan was "absolutely not" a cost-cutting exercise, Chhour said. However, the government has form on using “reviews” as an excuse to cut costs, and stop progress.
For example, in February 2024, Education Minister Erica Stanford claimed that her review of school builds and bus routes was “absolutely not” a cost cuttig exercise.
The end result was pausing / cancelling hundreds of school builds and cancelling / amending dozens of rural school routes that have left rural families panicked and devastated.
In October 2024, Federated Farmers has tried to come up with a solution to help these impacted groups:
Federated Farmers has come up with a range of solutions to prevent rural families from losing their much-needed school bus services.
The Ministry of Education is planning to scrap or change school bus runs to many communities around the country, a move that’s left farming families angry and upset.
“Our understanding is that about 250 school bus services are being axed, or at least changed, and we’ve been hearing from many of our members who are really concerned about it,” says Toby Williams, Federated Farmers rural education spokesperson.
“Ensuring your kids can get to school should be a basic service in this country, so this issue has really got our attention.”…
“I get that the Ministry has some cost-cutting to do, but I feel like these rural communities are an easy target.
“Just because it’s a quick win and doesn’t affect many people, that doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do.
“The impacts on the ground for rural families will be huge.”
3. NICOLA WILLIS’S HALF YEAR ECONOMIC UPDATE (HYEFU) IS DUE TOMORROW
In August, I explained: Why more economic and social pain is coming for us all - National are backing themselves into a corner, and we will pay for it.
And the upshot of it was that the government’s $12b of borrowings for ~$15bn of tax cuts has backed the government - and thereby us - into a corner.
Willis was likely to take the constrained budget envelope out on the public service and other discretionary* spend - including science, environment, social services, health.
*Discretionary for this government, based on budget and policy decisions to date.
The Post also reports Stats NZ may reverse its call from the second half of last year - that instead of being in a recession, NZ was actually growing at the time.
However, it’s expected the latest GDP figures due out on Thursday will likely to confirm the economy has been in recession, and at double the rate forecast by RBNZ:
ANZ, ASB and Westpac are all forecasting Stats NZ will report the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.4% during the three months to the end of September, after a 0.2% decline in the June quarter.
1News headlines the HYEFU with:
Govt's financial update expected to show bigger deficits for longer:
The government's financial outlook is expected to deteriorate as a sluggish economy and weaker tax take further delay a return to budget surplus and cause an increase in borrowing.
Note: sacking workers and cancelling government contracts, leading to job losses, significantly deteriorates the tax take.
Two things to look out for in the Half Yearly Update:
Tom Pullar-Strecker wrote a few days ago that Nicola Willis may try to play a smoke and mirrors game tomorrow:
Willis may throw some smoke over the operating deficit by changing the way the Treasury presents its financial forecasts.
The key measure of how government finances have been reported up to now has been the “Obegal” operating balance, which takes into account the finances of Crown entities including deficit-challenged ACC.
But Willis has strongly hinted she intends to strip Crown entities out of the headline deficit measure.
That could make future deficits look quite different and accelerate the supposed return to surplus, even though any improvements gained wouldn’t change the underlying state of the Government’s accounts.
Willis wouldn’t tell The Post last week whether she might swap out the headline deficit indicator as early as at the Hyefu on Tuesday, saying she would provide an “update” on the matter then.
“All of the indicators will be available at Hyefu. We intend to be upfront, clear and transparent,” she said.
And second, economists are expecting that the government may have to borrow more than the additional $12b as the government struggles on its finances.
4. THE NEW MENTAL HEALTH ACT SUBMISSIONS CLOSE 20 DEC. EXPERTS SAY IT IS A WASTED OPPORTUNITY THAT GOES AGAINST EVIDENCE.
The New Zealand Medical Journal notes that the government’s new Mental Health Act is is just "the old act with some new lipstick".
The professionals point out that New Zealand has wasted a "once-in-a-generation opportunity" to create a person-centric, human rights approach to its mental health legislation.
Otago University psychiatry professor Paul Glue said while the new Bill promised "great things" with its discussion of patient-centred care and supported decision-making, but that appeared to be merely "semantics".
Another, Associate Professor Sarah Gordon, a lived experience academic at Waikato University, said the bill as it was currently designed would not deliver the "transformational change" that was its intention.
"Community treatment orders have been proven to be not effective in their stated aim of reducing time spent in hospital and readmissions.
"So the response in the bill is a name change - from community treatment orders to community care orders!"
While the preamble to the bill mentioned "supported decision-making", there was no mention of it in the Bill itself, Gordon said.
5. COALITION’S FINAL CLIMATE PLAN WORSE THAN DRAFT PLAN AND RELIES ON UNPROVEN TECHNOLOGY
Marc Daalder (Newsroom) notes:
Govt’s final climate plan relies on unproven technology:
Policies included in the new climate plan actually cut emissions by less than in the draft plan released months ago
It relies on “unproven methane-busting technology and partially disproven carbon capture schemes for as much as half of its promised greenhouse emissions reductions.”
In July, Simon Watts, National’s Minister for Climate was challenged on this by Jack Tame, but as usual doubled down that this was the way forward:
6. NEW TENANCY LAWS HAVE PASSED: NO-CAUSE EVICTIONS ARE BACK
The government has successfully reinstated no-cause evictions in a move welcomed by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand. The legislation also brings back pet bonds and reduces landlords’ notice periods to tenants in certain circumstances.
The Green Party, said the no-cause tenancies would leave renters in limbo ahead of the festive season.
Tamatha Paul:
"Housing is a human right, but this government is treating it like a business. Housing forms the foundation for our communities to thrive, it is something we can afford to provide to everyone.”
ACT's Housing spokesperson Cameron Luxton said it was "great news for renters and landlords".
This legislation was signaled early on in the government’s tenure - it’s part of pro-landlord policies Chris Bishop and David Seymour promised Property Investors Associations around the country - pre-election.
They delivered on it and more - with the ~$3bn of landlord tax cuts being one of the first laws the government passed.
7. GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO ABUSE URGENCY TO PASS NZ LAWS AT UNPRECEDENTED RATES
Earlier this year, there was a lot of discussion around the rate, speed and motivation behind the government’s use of urgency powers to pass legislation.
In March, Newsroom’s Daalder reported:
Govt sets record for laws passed under urgency in first 100 days
No MMP government has passed more bills through the House under urgency in its first 100 days than the new coalition
Rushing legislation through urgency means the critical feedback and improvement phase is omitted, and stakeholders are not given a voice to be heard.
Yesterday, RNZ’s Louise Collins noted the government was pushing through with more legislation in its last days in the House.
The government is also using urgency to push through 11 bills, including the Employment Relations (Pay Deductions for Partial Strikes) Amendment Bill.
The Bill returns to the pre-2018 employment law that allowed employees to deduct their employees' pay in response to partial strikes. Although it was in the name of Van Velden, David Seymour fronted the discussion.
8. GREYHOUND RACING BAN WINS APPLAUSE FOR WINSTON PETERS
Winston Peters has won bipartisan support and international recognition for banning greyhound racing as injuries and deaths of the dogs continued unabated.
In July, Peters defied calls to ban greyhound racing from opposition MPs, lashing out with:
“Dogs love racing…[Go] "watch them in the wild".
The Government’s ban on greyhound racing includes a 20-month wind down to rehome up to 3500 dogs but trainers say this is “unrealistic and unachievable”.
Craig Roberts, long-time leading Canterbury greyhound trainer and member of the National Greyhound Racing New Zealand (GRNZ) board -
"That is absolutely ridiculous to think the greyhounds will be rehomed in 20 months. It will take years to wind down the industry and get all the greyhounds rehomed."
"I'm not in the industry to be willy-nilly putting animals down, that's ridiculous. The minister is going to have to revisit this, because what he is asking is absolutely unrealistic and not achievable."
9. GOVERNMENT CONTINUES TO STICK IT TO HEALTH NZ STAFF AND THE PUBLIC HEALTH SYSTEM
569 staff have taken voluntary redundancy in Health NZ in its latest job cuts round
And last week, more teams, including elderly patient care, were notified their jobs were on the line.
A health professional of 20 years who left NZ for Australia told me that the government’s actions have everyone on edge, and many with choices have already left.
She said the government was also reclassifying positions, without any other changes to responsibilities or pay, to make it look like there were less managers in the structure.
Shane Reti is also in damage control, writing multiple articles last week claiming he has the budget and intention to fund hospitals in Dunedin and Whangarei.
A lipstick government hoping to win the hearts and minds of Kiwis everywhere, with apologies to pigs.
10. POLITICAL CARTOON (Guy Body)
AND TO FINISH, TWO QUOTES
From Indigenous Tribes:
Does anyone know what the criteria is for passing law under urgency?
Surely there must be some restrictions?
Yet their leader does a photo op with his wife at a food bank