97% of submissions did not want no-cause evictions, Trump chooses a Russian spy for US Intelligence & Luxon Skips Out

Plus other political headlines

Nov 13, 2024

Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.

I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill.

It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the Bill is in effect,“constitutionally ineffective” and would “undermine Māori people's rights to culture and freedom from discrimination.”

Naturally, Luxon has skipped the country for this historic monent - which he should take responsibility for. Just as he skipped out on the Abuse in Care survivors’ stories this week too.

But for now, let’s take a look at today’s political round up:

1. Fast Track Bill progresses, successfully passing the second reading

Shane Jones wants the Coalition’s fast-track approvals regime to be the “most permissive” in Australasia and the 38-state OECD club of developed nations.

Jones said it was a “day of light” as the law change would remove what he described as “obstructiveness ” to development, and noted: “We've just taken all of the excessive ‘woke’ elements out of it.”

Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking rejected that, describing the overriding of environmental laws that the legislation allows as “disgraceful”.

“It allows coal mining in kiwi habitats,” she said.

Green Party environment spokesperson Lan Pham said an amendment adopted on the recommendation of a select committee that the Minister of Environment would be consulted on referrals gave little confidence.

Pham: “We have a Minister for the Environment who says that the balance has swung too far toward the environment at the cost of getting things done despite the overwhelming weight of evidence within her own ministry to the contrary.”

Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop will have the power to add additional projects to the list down the track and to appoint conveners to head expert panels that will decide whether projects get consents.

The Bill has approved fast-track projects such as Winton Property development to build on flood prone land in Auckland - and which Chris Bishop fought Kainga Ora and the last government on when he was in opposition (Winton are a large donor to the National Party and have a National MP on their Board. They previously told National it would be easier for them and more “balanced” if the application avoided local authorities)

And the Tarankai seabed mining application that has failed in our courts for almost a decade - and which was protected by the rights embedded within the current principles of Treaty of Waitangi.

Primary Source: Shane Jones hopes fast-track regime can be the 'most permissive' in developed world (The Post)

2. Over 40 Kings Counsels, our most senior lawyers, call for the government to abandon the Treaty Principles Bill

Members of the King's Counsel, some of New Zealand's most senior legal minds, say the Treaty Principles Bill "seeks to rewrite the Treaty itself" and are calling on the prime minister and the coalition to "act responsibly now and abandon" it.

More than 40 KCs have written to the prime minister and attorney-general outlining their "grave concerns" about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill and its wider implications for the country's constitutional arrangements.

Source: Senior lawyers call for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned (RNZ)

3. Majority of landlords oppose no-cause evictions, but they are welcomed by the few large property investors who called for them

Newsroom’s Fox Meyer reports that 97% of submissons on the no-cause eviction bill opposed it - including the majority of landlords.

The only group that had a majority of submitters backing the bill were large-scale property owners and developers. That includes the Auckland Property Investors Association, property developer Connect Property Management and the New Zealand Property Investors’ Federation.

Chris Bishop and David Seymour both promised Property Investors Associations around the country they would help landlords and investors if they were elected. They kept that promise and most PIA members were one issue voters.

Source: Majority of landlords reject Government’s no-cause evictions (Newsroom)

4. Global carbon budget will be used up in six years

Marc Daalder reports that the world is running out of time to limit warming to 1.5C.

Contrary to some hopes that carbon dioxide emissions have now peaked, the report estimates 2024 will set a new record for fossil CO2 emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes – a 0.8 percent increase on last year.

Earlier this year, Simon Watts, NZ’s Climate Change Minister already admitted his government’s policies will increase emissions up to 2030 and the government is unlikely to meet our Paris Agreement commitments.

The Climate Change Commission also warned that failing to hold up to our agreements will cost us trade relationships.

As it stands, two thirds of NZ’s current Paris target will be met through the purchase of offshore carbon credits rather than domestic emissions reductions. This has been labelled “blood offsets” and “hot air” by environmentalists who point out the definition is so broad, it can encompass almost anything.

Furthermore, it can lead to deaths of indigenous or vulnerable communities e.g. The pursuit of offsets under Kyoto led to dispossession and even murder – six people including two children were killed over a dam in Guatemala financed under Kyoto.

The Coalition government claims it is on track to meet immediate goals, but is vague on future targets. Environmentalists and scientists said the government is speaking “waffle” and say their policies clearly do not intend to meet our climate change commitments.

This appears consistent with the government’s rhetoric with both Shane Jones and Chris Bishop saying they will eliminate “green tape” from our country i.e. environmental protections and care.

In addition Simon Watts has indicated the government will remove our public sector carbon neutrality goal next year. And defending the government’s opening up of mining, argued: 'There's coal and there's coal'.

Primary Source: Global carbon budget will be used up in six years (Newsroom)

5. NZ Health Care officials continue to urge government to fund healthcare and warn of impacts to cuts and hiring freezes

Officials warned the Health Minister that meeting the government's targets for emergency department wait times and elective surgery would be difficult without more money.

Documents obtained by the Green Party under the Official Information Act refer to "capacity constraints", including the inability to fill vacancies.

"We've made clear that we require additional funding"

The inability to fill workforce vacancies a "capacity constraint"

"We've made clear that we require additional funding."

Shane Reti is cutting an “aspirational” $2bn from our health care system - and this month Nicola Willis said she would be increasing health funding in next year’s budget.

This suggests to me that they are playing an up-down game - slashing money and seriously weakening our health system, but betting on headlines next year to claim they are funding health.

Source: Health officials warned government more money needed to meet targets (RNZ)

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Global Tidal Waves

Over in the USA, Matt Gaetz has been appointed the USA Attorney General. And Tulsi Gabbard, a suspected Russian plant of many years, for a top security post.

Gaetz was previously investigated for sex trafficking but those charges were dropped last year.

Oklahoma senator Markwayne Mullin (Republican) has previously accused Gaetz of sharing videos of girls he slept with on the House floor. He told CNN last year that Gaetz would “brag about how he would crush ED medicine and chase it with an energy drink so he could go all night”.

On CNN today, he said, “I completely trust President Trump’s decision making on this one.”

This comes after Elon Musk’s inevitable appointment to Efficiency Czar, a point covered in “It feels like D-Day”.

President-elect Trump has also voiced his plans, outlined in the Atlas Network Project 2025 manifesto, to get rid of the Ministry of Education.

Bitcoin has elevated to record highs as the industry continues to lobby Donald Trump, and big banks who bet on this, have made billions in profits.

All this has implications for New Zealand - most notably in the environment (Project 2025 is vehemently anti-environment and anti-nature) as well as geopolitical security.

Immediately after the US election results were in, Elon Musk told SpaceX suppliers to move out of Taiwan, citing safety risks, with some suppliers already shifting their supply chain as a result.

Musk is a close associate of Putin, and has been in regular contact with Putin over the last two years. Musk has previously called Taiwan an “integral part” of China.

And yesterday, as Russia celebrates a Donald Trump US win, a close Putin ally noted wryly:

"To achieve success in the elections, Donald Trump relied on certain forces to which he has corresponding obligations. And as a responsible person, he will be obliged to fulfill them.”

Remember This?

Crime continues to increase despite National using an easier metric for their crime numbers. I know he won’t resign but it speaks to the cheap politics this government engaged in during their time in opposition:

Prediction

Nicola Willis has confirmed she will make a ferry announcement by year end (probably because she is tired of being called Nicky-no-boats)

I’m betting that with NZ First’s intervention, National will make the decision to use rail enabled ferries and upgrade the ports.

But they will use smaller boats, and she will suggest it is more value for money for NZ.

i-Rex was due in 2026 and maintenance costs have doubled to $65mn next year.

If they are able to land a coup, they could try to merge the cancellation costs into the new ferry build, but at this point we won’t have to wait long to see what they have up their sleeve.

Still, the contrast between David Seymour claiming “the government is broke” to spending $1.6mn on consultants to investigate a $10bn 4km Wellington tunnel and then going with a lesser cost one ($3-5bn) without a business case is stunning.