Last year in October I wrote “Where’s The Opposition?”. I was exasperated at the relative quiet of the Green Party, Labour and Te Pati Māori (TPM), as the National led Coalition ticked off a full bingo card of the Atlas Network playbook.1
To be fair, TPM helped to energise one of the largest hīkoi’s in modern Aotearoa New Zealand history.
And despite “tut tutting” from Police Minister Mark Mitchell in NZME hinting at violence and disorder, the hīkoi vibes were positive, uplifting and energised.
But this year, I noticed a distinct shift in energy.
Marama Davidson returned from breast cancer treatment, delivering on her desire to return to mahi for the people of Aotearoa.
She has been a solid performer so far.
Genter is passionate, and I personally like passion even if Jordan Williams and The Post’s Kelly Dennett and Anna Whyte don’t.
Te Pati Māori2 have been solid also - focusing on speaking up for Māori, even as the sitting government appears intent on weakening indigenous rights, systematically undoing Te Tiriti o Waitangi from our laws, and attempting to undercut its standing in our institutions.
And Chris Hipkins came back in fine form this year.
One of the things that has impressed me about Labour has been their discipline, unity, and focus.
Where I would have torn up the books and shouted in fiery emotion, Labour have read the plan and in hindsight, juggled the chess board better than I could have ever done.
That undeniably takes emotional maturity, discipline, probably political experience, and intellectual rigour.
I can hear the chorus of resistance at this point - where are Labour’s pitchforks? Where is their fire? Where is their promise to tear the neoliberal henchmen apart?
And to that, I say what I have said to many:
They have time.
The focus is where it should be right now.
i.e.on the antics of a government that readily throws away $800m on ferries3 celebrates a 53% rise in homelessness as a job well done, haven’t implemented any evidence based policies that I’ve seen - in fact quite the opposite, and are now intent on bringing American “woke” wars to our shores, despite what that’s done to America.
The National Coalition’s ideas are so damaging, that they include breaking Parliamentary rules to allow fast-track to benefit private corporations (corruption, anyone?), selling off sensitive lands and significant assets to overseas money with significantly pared back due diligence, and cutting the legs off a public health system that was still standing when they picked it up.
Just so they can privatise it.4
TLDR - Let the focus where it should be now.
Let it unfold at pace.
I know people are impatient for “solutions” but the minute you turn that on you switch focus.
Last night, I watched Chris Hipkin’s truncated interview on Q&A where Guyon Espinor was pushing and prodding Hipkins for specifics on taxes.
Hipkins provided plenty of hints, but above all, he gained my respect for not giving in to pundits who want a quick take and headline.
It takes discipline and foresight to not give in to the chorus of criticism - and there is a lot - including from their own side.
Hipkins was right, in my view.
One shouldn’t come out with a half baked tax plan or sensational claims - the sort that saw National’s Paul-remove-Te-Reo-Māori -Goldsmith come out with a $4bn ($4,000,000,000) hole while positing himself as competent and better.
Unveiling details won’t practically help us at this point.
And while highly respected economists and financial commentators such as Bernard Hickey,
and many others rightly go to bat for how we think about debt , nearly everyone will still want to know come election time - what will it cost me?It’s politics and fortunately or unfortunately, that’s also work.
Are we interested in winning or not?
Work is harder than marketing in my view. Remember how Nicola Willis satisfied her finance package promise?
By borrowing $12bn for tax cuts to keep her job after swearing for months she wasn’t going to.
I anticipate the right to campaign on low taxes and low debt and paint Labour and Greens as unaffordable and unrealistic
Work versus marketing…..
Labour built 14,000 new homes over their tenure (2,333 a year on average). That matches the deficit that National left and more when National left government.
Bishop plans under 1000 of his own and stops next year.5
[And in the graph below - through the red and orange bars (Labour) - you can see the trend - National takes away, Labour tries to catch up and more.]
Who’s going to have more “debt?”
No-one can ever accuse Chris Bishop or Christoper-I’ll-make-up-my-own-KPIs-Luxon of being ambitious - except for private sector profits and the wealthiest among us.
So do we credit people who try and are doing work - no matter how messy, slow, or otherwise?
Or do we want the big headlines and gratification now.
Before the election and after, National and ACT boasted about “efficiency”, “market expertise”, “excellence”, “caring for New Zealanders”, “prosperity”, but I’ve personally not seen any of that translate through to reality.
Have you?
I’ve always felt the left are the most demanding voters.
One way I look at it when I’m patient is to consider not only what I want, but how it can be achieved - for example if I were an MP, how would I navigate it?
In response to “Well Labour are too centrist and need to rip up the playbook” ‘what I’d say to you is’ - again, they have time.
A lot can still change in the next 15 months.
And as you can see in the Health portfolio, a change in leadership can for some reason stun people into believing everything is new, and OK.
We should expect Luxon won’t lead them into the 2026 election. Although I’d like to see them try.
Labour also have to contend with a huge electorate of people who are still mired in lies e.g. “Liebour spent all the money - we’re broke. They have to do this!” “Chloe Swarbrick is a simpleton!” “Te Pati Maori are going to take away everything!”
Many of those knots remain unpicked.
To the final point - “I want a revolutionary Martin Luther King, Greta Thunberg etc” - I’d say I understand. I love that too.
But I also know that history is not necessarily changed by revolutions - not always. Often our progress and work is boring, slow, steady but it is necessary and happening.
It doesn’t mean it’s not or won’t either.
I didn’t know until I looked at what this National Government repealed that Labour had been doing a lot of work.
And we feel the difference, don’t we?
Is it perfect?
I doubt any government ever is - that’s why the right have been able to play grievance politics so deftly and easily across the entire world - so the rest is really up to us as voters to choose how we choose, within the context of what is our world.
I noticed Dunedin is largely satisfied the government gave it the “least worst option” for their hospital. It shows that being a hard hat and then giving in a little seems to appease people better than acting in good faith and then under-delivering. Politics isn’t a sport I’d enjoy.
I’d encourage everyone to not so easily get pulled into the emotions on this one for now.
They’re doing well and that matters.
5 Reasons Labour Are Doing Well: Summary
They have time - acceleration offers no strategic or practical advantage
They need to account for changes and continue assessing what this Government will do now and into 2026. Staying nimble & flexible is important
The media and affiliate machine that opposes the left wing parties is funded by big money - that appears to include fossil fuel interests, Atlas Network, overseas billionaires and hedge fund/private equity money. That should not be underestimated. Labour are doing well here
The right have invested resources to say Chris Hipkins should go - that shows that he is a threat to them. Labour’s unity under Hipkins is also telling.
Focus is where it should be now - and that will help address the many years of cultivated misinformation and fear mongering.
Try not to get bailed into emotional reactivity by those that would have you do so.
The left must be united, not torn apart, and each party has their role.
Rumour or Reality:
On some accounts I’ve heard - this government “won’t allow any Māori words (that aren’t literal proper nouns) in any cabinet papers or the papers won’t be accepted for consideration”.
If true - they are disallowing Kiwis to use mahi, korero, etc. in the senior public service.
An odd, petty, but symbolic and somewhat believable account, especially when we have our sitting Justice and Treaty of Waitangi Minister trying to scrub Te Reo Māori from official Matariki invitations.
Unverified for now.
Related Reading:
A crash programme of massive cuts; demolishing public services; privatising public assets; centralising political power; sacking civil servants; sweeping away constraints on corporations and oligarchs; destroying regulations that protect workers, vulnerable people and the living world; supporting landlords against tenants; restricting the right to strike.
Tākuta Ferris, Ngarewa-Packer and Mariameno Kapa-King have all been clear minded and strong performers at Select Committees.
I estimate it’s well over $1bn once you account for the 60% off ferry deal
As Dr Gary Payinda outlined in his recent excellent post, this is emblematic of one of the “biggest welfare scams” of “private corporations sucking profits out of the public system.”
Chris Bishop is only finishing out existing builds and appears to be aiming for less than 1000 new builds as part of his own remit.
And then shunting it to private developers and other providers to take the problem off his books, and the government’s “debt”.
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