Opinion
Nicola Willis was too afraid to go on Q&A with Jack Tame today, declining their request for an interview, so instead, they located HSBC Chief Economist for Australia & New Zealand, who sounded how I imagine NZ Initiative policy sessions sound like.
According to Bloxham, NZ’s significant 0.9% contraction in June, and -1.1% GDP over the last year, can be attributed to a weak starting position, and “global uncertainty overlaid on top”.
Bloxham kept on pushing the global story - the same excuse trotted out by the National Party - throughout the interview:
“As I say, I think the broader story is that the economy was in a malaise. It was quite weak. And that overlaid on top, the global sort of uncertainty overlaid on top, has weakened conditions in that area a bit further yet.”
He pushed the same story for the whopping 3.5% drop in our manufacturing sector, saying -
“There's a global story going on. So the trade tensions that have played out across the world have had a reverberating effect in lots of manufacturing sectors across the world.”
No mention from Bloxham on the well documented energy price increases that are causing manufacturers around NZ to close - the same that Luxon has ignored calls around.1
Bloxham also failed to mention the general impact of National crashing the construction sector, which industry bosses put at the feet of National / Chris Bishop. The industry saw a $5 billion drop in revenue this year alone.
What about the fiscal choices of giving $300 million in tax breaks to tobacco companies and $500 million to global tech companies. etc.
None of that appeared of import to HSBC’s Chief Economist.
Current GDP comparisons however, do not support Bloxham’s views on international factors being a primary reason for the decline.
International comparison
Canada, which has been hit hardest and most substantively due to its high dependence on the US economy, and the punitive scale of its tariffs, grew at more than double the rate NZ did and the average OECD rate is multiple times better.
Bloxham, faced with the data, pivoted, appearing to immediately contradict himself in the process -
“Yes…I don't think we fully know [why this occurred] because New Zealand shouldn't have that bigger influence from the global story.
It's not overly exposed to the US economy and so on. So I think that's the, you know, that is an outstanding question as to why it's been as weak as it has.”
i.e. Now it’s turned from ‘world’ to ‘mystery’.
When Tame later presses the economist on the role of fiscal policy, Bloxham comes out with tepid, diversionary notes, downplaying fiscal policy and National’s actions, while focusing the ‘story’ on praising National.
"[National have] been trying to contract fiscal policy, consolidate the budget, get it back on track.”
Any downsides to National’s fiscal policies, he is asked?
Maybe he will mention the 10,000 public sector positions National took out in quick succession, or maybe immediately cancelling major infrastructure work - cancelling school rebuilds, hospital builds, renewable energy projects, and public contracts etc. that have dampened the economy significantly?
No, Bloxham wants you to focus on the positive narrative he, and folks such as Luxon and Willis have been trying to sell us:
“I think it's the broad story that the government's trying to consolidate. It has had some influence. But as I say, at the same time that they've done that, they're very focused on the idea that the economy needs to be open for business, looking to try and support the private sector, support a recovery in investment….”
“..more openness to global capital…And so, to me, that's the pathway.”
Unsurprisingly, he also puts the responsibility of economic recovery largely on the central bank - despite RBNZ’s core mandate being inflation (like all central banks, inflation and financial stability are the core pillars of their work - not economic growth.)
And Bloxham rallies for more rate cuts from RBNZ - even as we should note there is always a conflict of interest at play when banks promote lower interest rates, something which Tame fails to point out.
What an absolute shambles of an ‘economic analysis’ from where I stand, but more than that, it brings to mind how I imagine junk tank lobbyist groups might work - fed by the mouths of those who genuinely think private business and private business charity is the primary key to “economic prosperity” and eliminating 10,000 public sector positions & contributing to 18,000 job losses in construction is merely called “back on track” and “consolidation”.
It’s a pity Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis declined her opportunity to explain to Kiwis how her party envisages their next steps, and if she still views her party’s economic strategy as credible.
A greater pity to realise many in our media and media interviews are mouthpieces for those who favour the corporate and uber wealth class.2
I don’t know where Bloxham stands as a person or in his career, but as I understand it, this economist earned the title of best economic forecaster for 2024, and he’ll be known as the man who shared John Key’s penchant for calling NZ a “rockstar economy”.
He’s also the same economist who predicted in June 2025, that we’d already seen the worst & NZ would be on the rise now. To me, the whole interview smacked of a contrived, superficial narrative and I quickly lost interest.
As John Maynard Keynes said:
“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”
NZ’s Lack of Media Diversity Could Be Hurting Us
Consider this:
Political editor of The Post, Luke Malpass, is ex-NZ Initiative and believes Nicola Willis is still “capable”. Conservative economist Robert MacCulloch wrote last year that Willis and Luxon’s ideas originated largely from tanks like NZ Initiative, arguing it’s a key reason why the govt is failing.
Political editor of NZME, Thomas Coughlan, believed the chances of the “rockstar economy encore” would ensue under Luxon and Willis’s policies. That was in August 2024, just 3 months before leading economists sound the alarm on National’s fiscal policy impacts and Treasury slashing growth forecasts.
Ex-political editor of NZME, Jason Walls, has now moved to TVNZ 1News to lead economics and finance.
All of these gentlemen seem to share a similar world view to someone like HSBC’s economist, and dominate our media networks.
I believe we will need more diversity in media if NZ is to learn the lessons of the last decades and set us on a better path - the likes of Susan St John,
, , to name just a few, are likely to be key to those renewed conversations as they offer more nuanced, and multidisciplinary takes.
And many factories have closed in the last year: Winstone Pulp (230 jobs), Oji's Kinleith Mill (230 jobs) and Penrose Mill (75 jobs), Eves Valley Sawmill (142 jobs), Griffins Snacks in Nelson (75 jobs), Sealord (79 jobs) etc.
Q&A also interviewed John Key’s business partner Jamie Beaton the other week to tout Crimson Education and attack NCEA. The next day NCEA was cancelled, and Crimson advertised a post NCEA course.
