Current & planned debt will surpass Labour's full term debt in less years. Willis also admitted Budget 2024 had a higher deficit than all of Grant Robertson's bar Covid.
I’m handing this one over to Professor Rod McNaughton who states, “Switzerland sets the gold standard, consistently topping the ranking for the past 13 years. With a GDP almost three times larger than New Zealand’s, despite having a population only 1.5 times larger, Switzerland exemplifies the economic potential of a robust innovation ecosystem. If New Zealand matched Switzerland’s GDP per capita, it would mean an additional $178 billion to our economy.” As Sean Connery in his role as Jimmy Malone in ‘The Untouchables’ said, “Here endeth the lesson.”
Luxon, Willis, stop the Bullshit austerity, fund what needs funding, and get on with transforming New Zealand’s economy. You don’t achieve that by doubling down on a business model (commodity trading) that is failing, you achieve that with innovation and acknowledging that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is f**king stupid, insanity even.
And while you’re at it, innovate banking, food retailing, building supplies, energy provision, and any other oligopoly or government policy-advantaged businesses you can ferret out of the economy.
Real change takes time and is hard work, requires nuance, skill, an ability to juggle disparate and at times conflicting objectives and stakeholders. In other words, I'm not sure our Finance Minister, the Prime Minister or the Cabinet possess the intellectual heft or courage to do so. I'm happy to be proven wrong though.
To be really fair, substantive change takes time. Populist politicians aren't interested in long term results - they are interested in short term power and the enrichment that comes with it. Non populist politicians who work on a sustainable but slower trajectory will often get eviscerated too because 'it's not obvious enough'.
A rock and a hard place, but regardless, my count is National don't have the kahunas, vision or the competence.
And the longer they take to make change, the more human capital New Zealand will bleed out. It’s human capital that drives innovation and innovation helps businesses maintain their competitiveness. That’s important when you’re a trading nation relying on export revenue.
I’m not convinced there is a real rock and a hard place MT. If there is one, it’s between their ears. It’s political distraction and spin, directly tied to ancient neoliberal ideology, which is amplified now because the government has been captured by vested interests, and they don’t want change. They want to carry on extracting from the environment and from us. Big oligopolies love, love, love the status quo. Look at bank profits during the ‘cost-of-living-crisis’.
In contrast, change simply requires a decision and commitment to invest in innovating better business models with better products and better offerings. Ones that are capable of being more competitive and producing higher returns. For example, it is clear that the commodities New Zealand trades on price-taking platforms to earn a living don’t return enough profit to pay the bills. Hello structural deficit. Working harder versus smarter is…harder!
The choice is pretty simple, invest in helping businesses become more innovative, productive, and globally competitive or manage the current decline. Sadly, ghis government has chosen to manage the status quo of decline, whilst trying to sell their budget and management strategy as ‘growth’. I’ve never seen or heard such rubbish in my life. It’s not going to work. Eh, rant, rant, rant….I know, I’m shouting into the void. Therapeutic though. 😁
And yes, transformation isn’t cheap. It might mean borrowing or leveraging sovereignty, but’s that’s the question isn’t it: is the government prepared to back New Zealand enterprises or not? It would appear from the latest budget that the answer is resounding no.
To be clear, the rock and a hard place doesn't refer to this government. Their ideology is borne of a disproven, non evidentiary belief in right wing ideals.
Appreciate the "rants" and don't fundamentally disagree with much.
As someone who likes to understand the pot in detail, I'd say the ideal is easy to say - and we saw this govt out of power echo words about productivity and investment too - but implementation is always where complexity arises - whether good or bad intentioned - and no matter how easy it might appear.
As you suggest, the longer things have stagnated, the more challenging it can be. Not to say impossible - BTW. It just requires a lot of clarity and investigation.
Human capital is significant and this 190 a day loss is very damaging, agree.
Yes implementation is tricky MT, especially if you're not fully committed to it. The definition of 'culture' is, "The way things are around here."
The social, political, informational, and social subsystems that make up culture are reflected in the current hybrid government and drive its decision making processes, which are riddled with ideological rationale.
Unfortunately, this government's culture is a hybrid, formed from three vastly different cultures, each serving its base, and each catering to its political donor's vested interests. Money talks, always does.
And no surprises, the ones in power want to make sure the way things are around here doesn't change, and if it does, changes in the right way, their way.
I am not so sure it necessarily takes a long time to make real change. The current Government seems to have made some real change (mostly for the worse) in a very short elapsed timespan. I guess "real change" means long-term, sustainable change. The RSB has the potential to be long term, depending on how difficult it is to unpick. I hope opposition legal people are working on that already.
I'm thinking of 7AA, prosperity, education, child poverty, welfare, values, systems eg. mental health, health - these things take time to bed in.
There's always going to be this or that as shorter term or longer term examples, and the question is how we bring people along. I think where Labour got overwhelmed on was bringing people along the journey - that was a weakness that was take advantage of to the detriment of the country.
Agree on RSB - today I've written submitting on that is even more important than TPB now.
I think Labour and the left have the potential to shift the dial back towards serving the nation’s people and their society…if…they can reconnect to a sense of purpose that is many times greater than just winning an election. That’s the dream for me. Will it be realised? Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock…..time will tell. Right now, all I see is a fight to win power under the dome of a collapsing (collapsed?) neoliberal system. I would happily argue - with research-based evidence - that its failure as a political philosophy is profound.
Well said Tui. What I am pleased about, with Labour, is more of the desire to think/ plan long term, and with a higher degree of bi partisanship .. because doing/ undoing is extremely wasteful. And not a lot is fixed overnight.
You can imagine this is not the easiest paths to tread, amongst voters, & other political parties in these challenging times. .
"The upshot was clear - by implementing its austerity drive towards public services, social services. "..the government is ruthlessly and systematically removing faithful public servants from their jobs and replacing them with cronies
🤷I think the old adage about insanity sums this budget & almost ALL this govt's policies up... "doing the same thing over & over again & expecting a different result". That would be great if the results were GOOD, but around the globe & here in Aotearoa the results have been uniformly BAD 😱🤬
Even manage to mess up one of the often used capital 20% tax break by not putting rules to narrow its use like is done everywhere else 🤦🤦🤦 waiting to see if they are brave enough to put forward an amendment & admit the error ⁉️ or just another mess they plan to leave for the opposition if the govt changes ⁉️
So true and kind of the definition of insanity as you say. But as I noted before they don’t appear to work for us so the intended stakeholders will benefit perhaps. Such a pity that real lives are impacted at every turn
Most disturbing, it seems there is no acknowledgement the impacts international politics (Trump etc) and technology will bring. Imagine forecasting 1% growth over the next twenty years and thinking that has any validity at all?
It's a flaccid budget with no vision at all. More likely it will lead to long term deterioration given all their bets are on business and foreign firms, without accounting for the significant engine that powers economic growth i.e the majority of people that reside in the bottom portion of the triangle
I’m handing this one over to Professor Rod McNaughton who states, “Switzerland sets the gold standard, consistently topping the ranking for the past 13 years. With a GDP almost three times larger than New Zealand’s, despite having a population only 1.5 times larger, Switzerland exemplifies the economic potential of a robust innovation ecosystem. If New Zealand matched Switzerland’s GDP per capita, it would mean an additional $178 billion to our economy.” As Sean Connery in his role as Jimmy Malone in ‘The Untouchables’ said, “Here endeth the lesson.”
Luxon, Willis, stop the Bullshit austerity, fund what needs funding, and get on with transforming New Zealand’s economy. You don’t achieve that by doubling down on a business model (commodity trading) that is failing, you achieve that with innovation and acknowledging that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is f**king stupid, insanity even.
And while you’re at it, innovate banking, food retailing, building supplies, energy provision, and any other oligopoly or government policy-advantaged businesses you can ferret out of the economy.
Real change takes time and is hard work, requires nuance, skill, an ability to juggle disparate and at times conflicting objectives and stakeholders. In other words, I'm not sure our Finance Minister, the Prime Minister or the Cabinet possess the intellectual heft or courage to do so. I'm happy to be proven wrong though.
To be really fair, substantive change takes time. Populist politicians aren't interested in long term results - they are interested in short term power and the enrichment that comes with it. Non populist politicians who work on a sustainable but slower trajectory will often get eviscerated too because 'it's not obvious enough'.
A rock and a hard place, but regardless, my count is National don't have the kahunas, vision or the competence.
And the longer they take to make change, the more human capital New Zealand will bleed out. It’s human capital that drives innovation and innovation helps businesses maintain their competitiveness. That’s important when you’re a trading nation relying on export revenue.
I’m not convinced there is a real rock and a hard place MT. If there is one, it’s between their ears. It’s political distraction and spin, directly tied to ancient neoliberal ideology, which is amplified now because the government has been captured by vested interests, and they don’t want change. They want to carry on extracting from the environment and from us. Big oligopolies love, love, love the status quo. Look at bank profits during the ‘cost-of-living-crisis’.
In contrast, change simply requires a decision and commitment to invest in innovating better business models with better products and better offerings. Ones that are capable of being more competitive and producing higher returns. For example, it is clear that the commodities New Zealand trades on price-taking platforms to earn a living don’t return enough profit to pay the bills. Hello structural deficit. Working harder versus smarter is…harder!
The choice is pretty simple, invest in helping businesses become more innovative, productive, and globally competitive or manage the current decline. Sadly, ghis government has chosen to manage the status quo of decline, whilst trying to sell their budget and management strategy as ‘growth’. I’ve never seen or heard such rubbish in my life. It’s not going to work. Eh, rant, rant, rant….I know, I’m shouting into the void. Therapeutic though. 😁
And yes, transformation isn’t cheap. It might mean borrowing or leveraging sovereignty, but’s that’s the question isn’t it: is the government prepared to back New Zealand enterprises or not? It would appear from the latest budget that the answer is resounding no.
To be clear, the rock and a hard place doesn't refer to this government. Their ideology is borne of a disproven, non evidentiary belief in right wing ideals.
Appreciate the "rants" and don't fundamentally disagree with much.
As someone who likes to understand the pot in detail, I'd say the ideal is easy to say - and we saw this govt out of power echo words about productivity and investment too - but implementation is always where complexity arises - whether good or bad intentioned - and no matter how easy it might appear.
As you suggest, the longer things have stagnated, the more challenging it can be. Not to say impossible - BTW. It just requires a lot of clarity and investigation.
Human capital is significant and this 190 a day loss is very damaging, agree.
Yes implementation is tricky MT, especially if you're not fully committed to it. The definition of 'culture' is, "The way things are around here."
The social, political, informational, and social subsystems that make up culture are reflected in the current hybrid government and drive its decision making processes, which are riddled with ideological rationale.
Unfortunately, this government's culture is a hybrid, formed from three vastly different cultures, each serving its base, and each catering to its political donor's vested interests. Money talks, always does.
And no surprises, the ones in power want to make sure the way things are around here doesn't change, and if it does, changes in the right way, their way.
I am not so sure it necessarily takes a long time to make real change. The current Government seems to have made some real change (mostly for the worse) in a very short elapsed timespan. I guess "real change" means long-term, sustainable change. The RSB has the potential to be long term, depending on how difficult it is to unpick. I hope opposition legal people are working on that already.
I'm thinking of 7AA, prosperity, education, child poverty, welfare, values, systems eg. mental health, health - these things take time to bed in.
There's always going to be this or that as shorter term or longer term examples, and the question is how we bring people along. I think where Labour got overwhelmed on was bringing people along the journey - that was a weakness that was take advantage of to the detriment of the country.
Agree on RSB - today I've written submitting on that is even more important than TPB now.
I think Labour and the left have the potential to shift the dial back towards serving the nation’s people and their society…if…they can reconnect to a sense of purpose that is many times greater than just winning an election. That’s the dream for me. Will it be realised? Tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock…..time will tell. Right now, all I see is a fight to win power under the dome of a collapsing (collapsed?) neoliberal system. I would happily argue - with research-based evidence - that its failure as a political philosophy is profound.
Well said Tui. What I am pleased about, with Labour, is more of the desire to think/ plan long term, and with a higher degree of bi partisanship .. because doing/ undoing is extremely wasteful. And not a lot is fixed overnight.
You can imagine this is not the easiest paths to tread, amongst voters, & other political parties in these challenging times. .
"The upshot was clear - by implementing its austerity drive towards public services, social services. "..the government is ruthlessly and systematically removing faithful public servants from their jobs and replacing them with cronies
So, so true, Winston, so so real.
Trump style. No integrity morals or ability required.
Yes Trump style. And Another new Judge appointed today on the recommendation of our Attorney General
Another great article MT. Shared.
“Show me your budget and I’ll show you your priorities“ Nancy Pelosi
Everyday Kiwi: So, how does trickle down work again?
Nicolalala: First, the 1% get all the money...
Everyday Kiwi: And then what?
Nicolalala: What do you mean?
🤷I think the old adage about insanity sums this budget & almost ALL this govt's policies up... "doing the same thing over & over again & expecting a different result". That would be great if the results were GOOD, but around the globe & here in Aotearoa the results have been uniformly BAD 😱🤬
Even manage to mess up one of the often used capital 20% tax break by not putting rules to narrow its use like is done everywhere else 🤦🤦🤦 waiting to see if they are brave enough to put forward an amendment & admit the error ⁉️ or just another mess they plan to leave for the opposition if the govt changes ⁉️
So true and kind of the definition of insanity as you say. But as I noted before they don’t appear to work for us so the intended stakeholders will benefit perhaps. Such a pity that real lives are impacted at every turn
Thank You Mountain Tui. This should be in the Headlines. Wonderful Research and truth telling..
Thank you Patricia.
Most disturbing, it seems there is no acknowledgement the impacts international politics (Trump etc) and technology will bring. Imagine forecasting 1% growth over the next twenty years and thinking that has any validity at all?
It's a flaccid budget with no vision at all. More likely it will lead to long term deterioration given all their bets are on business and foreign firms, without accounting for the significant engine that powers economic growth i.e the majority of people that reside in the bottom portion of the triangle
Great work MT!
Cheers Mike