Your column is brilliant MountainTui. I am saving it to use to persuade against those who have accepted the Coalition's huge pile of misinformation and lies. The forces against your factual material is the well oiled groups aiming to destroy our democracy.
It actually took me a while to write - much more than usual. These thoughts have been jumbling in my head for a long time, and I found it exasperating reading so many around me appear not to grasp the politics behind the situation. Nor grasp the very real risks of our juncture.
Especially 3 Waters which was never understood because it was cloaked by the right in racism. And now so many are horrified at how their rates are increasing.
The larger concern is if the left can keep their wits about them or not - and that includes the voters and parties. I don't think the left wing voters are better at anything more than the circular firing squad but I hope I'm just being harsh.
Absolutely correct. I could just scream about it. Some old coot down the road from me had the "stop 3 waters" sign plastered on his fence....... it's gone now,and I feel like banging on his door and saying "are you happy now you old fart?"
Good going MT. On the following extract, we’re simpatico, “I’m not wedded to any political party - but I am quite attached to the idea that if the Coalition government wins a second term, we can say goodbye to New Zealand as we know it almost completely.” On the strategy and nuances we differ, but that’s what makes the world go around. You’re dead right about change, it isn’t easy, but the conversations that instigate thinking about how we go from here (a complete mess) to there (something much better) need to happen. Thus far, I have only seen that commitment from the Greens, and it was delivered imperfectly, and it was rapidly garrotted by all and sundry. Pity.
I look forward to hearing Hipkins’ strategic vision for the future of New Zealand. My god the country needs one. He has certainly had the time for deep immersion and insight. Let’s hope it pays dividends. My fingers and toes are crossed MT. 🤞🤞🤞
Oh, and typos, so bloody annoying. Editing usually takes me longer than the actual writing and I still miss stuff. Such is the life of a writer.
Yes read it numerous times and as soon as I press publish, out come the rest of the errors. This time particularly egregious, with apologies, but also I appreciate the understanding. Who would have thought writing is like this? :-)
Yeah, it’s nice to leave an article ferment for a day or two but we don’t always have that luxury. Great piece MT and my god, do I want to see the tail end of this lot. Then the real work begins and it’s going to be hard yards. Still, we’re not America yet, so there’s that.
Yes I mean I think Sir Palmer was being generous with the risks we are really facing - his articles and his work over the last year shows how worried he is.
Is it enough to stop an unobliterated sell off of our country and the direction we now see advancing significantly? My own answer is bloody yes, it is - and it would be a feat in itself given what we face. The odds aren't assured.
No, the odds are far from certain. The mission creep of the right and capital has been insidious. Reagen and Thatcher have a lot to answer for. This doco by Michael Moore tracks the damage capitalism has delivered quite well. Worth a watch: https://youtu.be/iTAIdWP00pA?si=rR9hGgjTissFV0kY.
👍💯 Once again, precisely what has been fermenting in MY brain as I listen to unreasonable expectations & demands from Labour that no-one uses on any other party 😱
🤔 Anyone who wants Greens &/or Te Pati Maori in the next govt needs to understand the ONLY way that will happen is if Labour has enough support to form a coalition govt with them 🤷 Support the party you support but sniping about Labour is working against what you want & playing into the NACT1st strategy 🤬 If you are not a Labour supporter, SAY NOTHING! Put your energy to work for your preferred party 👍
Funny that those on the "left" are the nicest and most caring people generally, and tolerant of others being "different", BUT not when it comes to Labour ⁉️ Tolerant with the unrealistic policies of minor left parties (not all policies of course, but some...) but intolerant of a major party who forms it's policy from experience of governing & knowing the practicalities. OK to dream big, but there has to be a realistic chance of pulling it off - global pandemic excepted!
And that's the other part that grinds my gears - "but they didn't do all they promised..." when the promises were made assuming the economy they inherited with the improvements they intended to make, but some seem to have forgotten that while we were masking & social distancing & saving 20,000 + precious whanau from dying of COVID, the whole world economic order was under even more stress and virtually NO-ONE was able to stick to pre-pandemic budgets and plans. The fact that under Labour Aotearoa came out relatively well compared to most others, is conveniently set aside as of no consequence 🥺
As I've said before, I vote each time based on what is happening here, and who has the better policies for the people plus IF they are blowing smoke or actually capable of delivering 🤗 Since MMP I have often split my vote and recognising there is a long time in politics to the next election, there's no way of knowing how that will go this time around 😁 After all, this lot have been quietly imploding even while enacting terrible legislation, so who knows what kind of mess the next govt will have to deal with 🤢
Also Cindy, nice but the judgement will never fail. I saw people falling over themselves to "give credit" if the right do a sliver of decency, not that I've seen it yet, but the example of Judith Collins defending the captain of the sunk ship from sexist comments comes to mind.
But hell hath no fury for the left wing governments - if they don't do everything "my way", when I want it, how I want it etc
More seriously, politics is by its very nature balancing interests, and you can tell where the government's head is by their priorities and budget allocation. Looking back I don't think Labour (perhaps not perfect and undoubtedly there were errors, as there always are). Also horrific how people seem to conveniently forget Covid, like it was nothing. It wasn't nothing. No wonder Jacinda left - what a heartbreaking response from a nation.
Well done MT! I especially like the appendix of all the items that they ran through with urgency. While I dislike urgency, I do hope the left is building a real list of quick changes. As I have stated before, one quick change I would love to see is campaign finance and for that matter ethics reform.
Great post Tui. Sadly it’s difficult to educate voters unless the media challenge the misleading claims politicians make. I was shocked at the number of people who voted for tax cuts because they thought they’d get extra $100/s per week in their hand. One of them thought they’d get at least $200 because that’s what they were led to believe. When we worked it out they were going to get an extra $3 per week…, they chose to not believe us . I have to resist the temptation to ask them how that tax cut is working out for them.
Yes! And you bring up an important point - we are all here quite interested in politics and depth of news, but the majority are not. It's an unfortunate reality....
Civics does get taught in Social Studies at school. Some teachers do an absolutely superb job. Unfortunately, teachers get tainted by accusations of brainwashing the young because we are mostly left-leaning.
That’s great to know Celeste. Thanks. When was that introduced? Do you know? It wasnt taught when my children were at school, which wasnt that long ago. Yes, traditionally teachers did tend to be left leaning but my old school teacher friends tell me that really started to change over the past 20 or so years. Especially at the management level.
Until it hits them in the pocket it seems when it's too late. I absolutely hate this government for everything it's undone but also for happily having its strings pulled by the USA when for a long time especially under Helen Clark we kept our own council.
I worry about the kiwi penchant for ‘strong leaders’.
Following or trusting a ‘strong leader’ seems to absolve New Zealanders from the tediousness of understanding both policies and politics. Elections are now won by television appearances/presentations/promises.
Holyoake and Muldoon were bully boys but were revered for their ‘strong’ decisions in relation to the Crimes Act (Holyoake) and “Think Big” projects (Muldoon).
The alacrity with which voters in 2023 rushed to support a businessman promising tax cuts as a ‘strong leader’ still astonishes me. And leaves me despondent.
Polls seem to show that Winston has taken the ‘strong leader’ mantle in the Coalition. I don’t see anyone in the opposition parties effectively standing up to him and winning a ‘strong leader’ reputation. I don’t think that debates in Parliament carry much weight in altering public perceptions and I look forward to future campaigns of opposition parties changing the balance of yellow, blue and black political posts in my media feeds.
Yes I mean how many people clamour for the leader that is loud, charismatic, emotional and/or authoritarian? Is that really what leadership is? Some part of me Bill tells me it's all also a lost cause. And I can only summarise it as "people get the governments they contributed to"
Supercala-etc. Well writ. I hope that the new government is brutal with its plans for the first 100 days, they have a lot to fix, or unfux might be a better verb
The current government seems to be operating with this type of rear guard action in mind though too - hence the 10 year contracts and the rushing of nearly every law under urgency. Dangerous times.
That is a lot MT! I’m going out on a limb here and going to say that chippy is going to hold them back from achieving better at the next election. No matter how much he leads it is just too easy to chuck COVID out there and flash people back to having their “freedom “ curtailed. He is terminally damaged with enough of the electorate ( in my opinion). Other than that labour stuffed up because they relented to pressure from opposition from inside and outside of their party. They should have taxed the surplus out of the economy when they increased the limits for COVID relief as an example. It should have been framed that way from the start, take it if you need it but if you didn’t need it we will tax it back off you. It was national who pushed them to increase the limits of subsidies, which ended up feathering the nests of their constituents.
I don't deny errors were made but I think this is part of it too - I can forgive much more if the intentions are fine, and I'm also looking at the bigger picture here, and the results that were never truly publicised.
As to giving in the pressure of the opposition, I think there's always that hindsight is 20/20 aspect. They were always going to come under pressure to "help the businesses" and now we know that no matter what Labour do, they would have been attacked and painted with one brush.
Yes I know the framing is not great against the opposition, again I think the outcome was fine , just the government now bashes them with it due to the “ mountain” of debt they “ran “ up
I agree. The issue post-2020 Labour is suffering from, is not simply propaganda from National, but their response to that propaganda. Instead of following their own messaging strategist (Anat Shenker-Osorio) that helped Jacinda win in under 7 weeks saying that Labour will win if they push more unapologetic left wing policies with better messaging, instead they are keeping some of Nationals policies (gang patch ban) and keeping silent about their own.
This a foolish strategy
1. As Anat Shenker-Osorio pointed out "don't check the temperature, change it" which is to say: to win an election you do not chase the centre or the right, you get them to chase you. Do not give them what they want, get them to want what you are offering.
2. Because if someone is lying about you is it better to tell the truth or to keep silent? If all people hear about you is the lie then that is the more effective propaganda and that's probably why the polls are often neck and neck. Keeping silent (waiting to announce policies) doesn't dispel a lie, the truth (announcing at least some major policies) does.
Damn strong stuff. The misinformation machine is so strong against Labour. My biggest gripe with Ardern’s government was there was no real moves made on the tax system and I really think Hipkins sealed their loss by ruling it out. As much as I want this government to get out I really feel that unless Labour goes more explicitly left they won’t be able to differentiate themselves from National enough. This is also why I don’t really think it’s useful for them to punch left against the Greens. They’ve got enough misinformation thrown against them without Labour amplifying any of it.
All that said, you made me reconsider my position on Labour the last few days. Thanks for that.
I agree they need to differentiate. I suspect they're constrained by the maths, and before we all say "tax everyone to hell," a large number of people vote just on wallets. Anyway the policy discussion is important. Also agree on them not needing to punch against Greens. As to Ardern, I suspect she underestimated the flow and pressure of politics, and she is fundamentally someone who likes cohesiveness and "bringing people along". She's not a coward but it's that type of...democratic values that leads her to be who she is and therefore do what she did. Don't misunderstand - before I engaged with politics, I rolled my eyes at her on TV....I didn't know any better or appreciate what she was facing. As to Hipkins, I think his CGT call was a mistake but we all say that with hindsight. That's part of what annoys me about analysts, using hindsight is a cheat's way....it can inform us, but to pretend we always knew better I think is also a little misleading.
Thank you for commenting, in solidarity, my friend.
This is great MT. The other one is Labour needs a new leader. Doesn't work like that. Just like policy, it is up to members. I think the greatest danger to us all is NZ First who are looking to scoop up former Labour voters. Not me! I'm old enough to remember when NZ First went with National and took all six Maori seats. I cried because I knew what It meant for workers who had been battling it out since Bill Birch's/Bolger's ECA in 1990.
Darien, I was on Bluesky and so many around feel like .. the right, so many demanding this, demanding that, without even understanding the complexities at play nor the risk. I think I'm more deflated by those type of people because it reminds me that it's not just the "right" that have blinkers. Thanks for caring for so many years.
My experience of campaigning many years ago tells me that "swing" voters are likely to swing just once. Why should that be? Your guess is as good as mine, but I think one of the reasons might be related to a desire of most people to see themselves as "well off". Once they've bought a house—no matter the size of the mortgage—they see themselves as having moved into an "upper" bracket, so even if their antecedents have been Labour forever, they tend to swing to support the most popular conservative party. If I am correct, then those who will swing in the next election will likely have never done so in the past, and this is likely the only time they will do so.
This suggests to me that most voters do not give much thought to the politics confronting them. They have to be jolted out of their complacency to think about what is happening to them, and give active thought to whether or not they can change it. It also suggests that most are also selfish. They do not look very far outside their own box.
We know, just from voting statistics, that only a small proportion of the electorate will determine the outcome of the election. But we need to remember that it will be a different part of that proportion which will change their allegiance in any election. There is a larger proportion of the electorate which determines the strength of a major party. It doesn't change, and it doesn't determine the outcome of an election. But it has to be catered for. By and large that proportion does not "think"—it doesn't have to, it has long-since made up its mind, but political parties ignore them at their peril. Thinking they are being ignored will piss-off voters quicker than just about any other politics. And it will probably be something quite trivial that causes it. In 1945 my parents (with my sister and me) lived in a state house in Mt Roskill. They were visited one day by the local member (Labour) and his wife. They asked if they could inspect the house. They said they were trying to ensure that it was up to scratch. At the end of the visit, I was told that my mother overheard the MP's wife say that she could happily live in the house. My mother immediately asked what they meant and was informed that we would get a brand new house and that the MP and his wife were going to move into ours. I was told that the proverbial fan ground to a halt and we never shifted out and the MP never shifted in. BUT—my parents never voted Labour again. My mother died in her 90th year about 13 years ago. The moral is that a tiny, relatively trivial suggestion was not trivial to my parents. Ironically, we moved from that house about 12 months later when my parents bought a small business.
It has always been clear to me that policy needs to be shaped around this sort of thinking. Which raises another issue. Why on earth would Labour release any details of policy at present? By not releasing anything they can make National whine about having nothing to attack them on. Well, good! It also means that Labour does not have to fight the lies National and ACT will construct about their policies longer than is necessary.
A propos of which, MT, you raised the subject of the expenditure Labour undertook during the pandemic years, and commented on the lies being spread about it at present.
I recently commented on the effect of that expenditure in my recent Substack, "New Zealand in a World of Giants."
"However, while New Zealand’s debt-to-GDP ratio has more than doubled, the per-capita debt, at NZ$16,718, remains the lowest among the nations compared here, even though the sharp increase from a low base represents a not insignificant burden. The larger economies, already carrying substantial debt, saw their per-capita liabilities increase considerably. The United States, for instance, saw its total federal debt reach US$33.1 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2023157, pushing the burden to nearly US$100,000 per person. The UK′s public sector net debt reached £2.7 trillion, or around £39,300 per person156, half that of the US and more than 5 times New Zealand’s debt."
Let National and ACT lie their way out of those figures.
This is a very detailed expose of the fact that noone really knew why they hated Labour so were to happy to believe all the talk of "fiscal cliffs" and such like making it all sound as if we were in terrible danger! Unfortunately it needed a very strong leader to stand firm and show us all what you have just produced in this writing. Also I think they might have benefited by not making covid "that which should not be talked about" and defended their record and actions proudly - people have forgotten how they essentially voted Labour in the previous election on its strength of management during an unprecedented crisis.
And the msm continue to pummel Labour by minimising exposure and reinforcing mis/disinformation spread by coalition partners. Look out next election the msm will be merciless.
Absolutely! A strange phenomenon worldwide seems to be business owned media's manic support for right wing neo liberalism and discard of the truth. Was a time when even privately-owned media gave genuine balanced commentary.
Yes it's getting more and more corrupt. Brexit was a turning point - as was Trump's first win. For once the right realised they could do whatever they want so long as they can fool enough people.
I even noticed on TV 1 last night they had big news about a few Israelis being killed in a bus but not so much news until just recently the killing the Israelis have unleashed on Gaza if that's not Zionists talking I'll go hee.
Sorry folks, I've corrected 4 grammatical errors post-publication. My proof read editor will be hired any day now. (last part is unfortunately a joke)
Your column is brilliant MountainTui. I am saving it to use to persuade against those who have accepted the Coalition's huge pile of misinformation and lies. The forces against your factual material is the well oiled groups aiming to destroy our democracy.
Every one must read it and absorb.
I’m also saving it. Perhaps we all post one of these sections on socials a week in the lead up to the election?
This is very important analysis. Thank you for this supreme effort.
It actually took me a while to write - much more than usual. These thoughts have been jumbling in my head for a long time, and I found it exasperating reading so many around me appear not to grasp the politics behind the situation. Nor grasp the very real risks of our juncture.
Thanks for taking the time to read it, Christine.
Especially 3 Waters which was never understood because it was cloaked by the right in racism. And now so many are horrified at how their rates are increasing.
Ensuring that the people never link cause and effect is fundamental to right wing populism.
Nigel Farage's rise in the UK is testimony to that - Brexit has rendered UK economically and politically weakened, yet so many run back.
This is the unobliterated power of misinformation and populism, Christine. It can take down countries.
I worry about where we are going as this coalition still have a year in office to further destroy our country.
Only the sane will worry, so it's a good sign.
The larger concern is if the left can keep their wits about them or not - and that includes the voters and parties. I don't think the left wing voters are better at anything more than the circular firing squad but I hope I'm just being harsh.
Absolutely correct. I could just scream about it. Some old coot down the road from me had the "stop 3 waters" sign plastered on his fence....... it's gone now,and I feel like banging on his door and saying "are you happy now you old fart?"
Lol, yes and one not far from us still displaying ' end mandates'. Obviously keeps up with the news, says it all I guess.
It's comforting isn't it, to know that so many are well informed and non racist..not!..
Good going MT. On the following extract, we’re simpatico, “I’m not wedded to any political party - but I am quite attached to the idea that if the Coalition government wins a second term, we can say goodbye to New Zealand as we know it almost completely.” On the strategy and nuances we differ, but that’s what makes the world go around. You’re dead right about change, it isn’t easy, but the conversations that instigate thinking about how we go from here (a complete mess) to there (something much better) need to happen. Thus far, I have only seen that commitment from the Greens, and it was delivered imperfectly, and it was rapidly garrotted by all and sundry. Pity.
I look forward to hearing Hipkins’ strategic vision for the future of New Zealand. My god the country needs one. He has certainly had the time for deep immersion and insight. Let’s hope it pays dividends. My fingers and toes are crossed MT. 🤞🤞🤞
Oh, and typos, so bloody annoying. Editing usually takes me longer than the actual writing and I still miss stuff. Such is the life of a writer.
Yes read it numerous times and as soon as I press publish, out come the rest of the errors. This time particularly egregious, with apologies, but also I appreciate the understanding. Who would have thought writing is like this? :-)
Yeah, it’s nice to leave an article ferment for a day or two but we don’t always have that luxury. Great piece MT and my god, do I want to see the tail end of this lot. Then the real work begins and it’s going to be hard yards. Still, we’re not America yet, so there’s that.
Yes I mean I think Sir Palmer was being generous with the risks we are really facing - his articles and his work over the last year shows how worried he is.
Is it enough to stop an unobliterated sell off of our country and the direction we now see advancing significantly? My own answer is bloody yes, it is - and it would be a feat in itself given what we face. The odds aren't assured.
No, the odds are far from certain. The mission creep of the right and capital has been insidious. Reagen and Thatcher have a lot to answer for. This doco by Michael Moore tracks the damage capitalism has delivered quite well. Worth a watch: https://youtu.be/iTAIdWP00pA?si=rR9hGgjTissFV0kY.
👍💯 Once again, precisely what has been fermenting in MY brain as I listen to unreasonable expectations & demands from Labour that no-one uses on any other party 😱
🤔 Anyone who wants Greens &/or Te Pati Maori in the next govt needs to understand the ONLY way that will happen is if Labour has enough support to form a coalition govt with them 🤷 Support the party you support but sniping about Labour is working against what you want & playing into the NACT1st strategy 🤬 If you are not a Labour supporter, SAY NOTHING! Put your energy to work for your preferred party 👍
Funny that those on the "left" are the nicest and most caring people generally, and tolerant of others being "different", BUT not when it comes to Labour ⁉️ Tolerant with the unrealistic policies of minor left parties (not all policies of course, but some...) but intolerant of a major party who forms it's policy from experience of governing & knowing the practicalities. OK to dream big, but there has to be a realistic chance of pulling it off - global pandemic excepted!
And that's the other part that grinds my gears - "but they didn't do all they promised..." when the promises were made assuming the economy they inherited with the improvements they intended to make, but some seem to have forgotten that while we were masking & social distancing & saving 20,000 + precious whanau from dying of COVID, the whole world economic order was under even more stress and virtually NO-ONE was able to stick to pre-pandemic budgets and plans. The fact that under Labour Aotearoa came out relatively well compared to most others, is conveniently set aside as of no consequence 🥺
As I've said before, I vote each time based on what is happening here, and who has the better policies for the people plus IF they are blowing smoke or actually capable of delivering 🤗 Since MMP I have often split my vote and recognising there is a long time in politics to the next election, there's no way of knowing how that will go this time around 😁 After all, this lot have been quietly imploding even while enacting terrible legislation, so who knows what kind of mess the next govt will have to deal with 🤢
100%
Also Cindy, nice but the judgement will never fail. I saw people falling over themselves to "give credit" if the right do a sliver of decency, not that I've seen it yet, but the example of Judith Collins defending the captain of the sunk ship from sexist comments comes to mind.
But hell hath no fury for the left wing governments - if they don't do everything "my way", when I want it, how I want it etc
More seriously, politics is by its very nature balancing interests, and you can tell where the government's head is by their priorities and budget allocation. Looking back I don't think Labour (perhaps not perfect and undoubtedly there were errors, as there always are). Also horrific how people seem to conveniently forget Covid, like it was nothing. It wasn't nothing. No wonder Jacinda left - what a heartbreaking response from a nation.
Agree 💯 about covid & Jacinda an absolute disgrace.
That's what Labour does sadly, inherits a mess and tries to fix it.
Well done MT! I especially like the appendix of all the items that they ran through with urgency. While I dislike urgency, I do hope the left is building a real list of quick changes. As I have stated before, one quick change I would love to see is campaign finance and for that matter ethics reform.
Agreed and thanks Erik.
Great post Tui. Sadly it’s difficult to educate voters unless the media challenge the misleading claims politicians make. I was shocked at the number of people who voted for tax cuts because they thought they’d get extra $100/s per week in their hand. One of them thought they’d get at least $200 because that’s what they were led to believe. When we worked it out they were going to get an extra $3 per week…, they chose to not believe us . I have to resist the temptation to ask them how that tax cut is working out for them.
Yes! And you bring up an important point - we are all here quite interested in politics and depth of news, but the majority are not. It's an unfortunate reality....
That’s why we need civics taught in schools. I’m pretty sure the Greens were pushing for that…. This lot would never enact such a beneficial policy.
This lot are corporate raiders for the wealthy..
100%!
Civics does get taught in Social Studies at school. Some teachers do an absolutely superb job. Unfortunately, teachers get tainted by accusations of brainwashing the young because we are mostly left-leaning.
That’s great to know Celeste. Thanks. When was that introduced? Do you know? It wasnt taught when my children were at school, which wasnt that long ago. Yes, traditionally teachers did tend to be left leaning but my old school teacher friends tell me that really started to change over the past 20 or so years. Especially at the management level.
Until it hits them in the pocket it seems when it's too late. I absolutely hate this government for everything it's undone but also for happily having its strings pulled by the USA when for a long time especially under Helen Clark we kept our own council.
Tui, this is a ton of work! succinct, accurate, relevant.
I worry about the kiwi penchant for ‘strong leaders’.
Following or trusting a ‘strong leader’ seems to absolve New Zealanders from the tediousness of understanding both policies and politics. Elections are now won by television appearances/presentations/promises.
Holyoake and Muldoon were bully boys but were revered for their ‘strong’ decisions in relation to the Crimes Act (Holyoake) and “Think Big” projects (Muldoon).
The alacrity with which voters in 2023 rushed to support a businessman promising tax cuts as a ‘strong leader’ still astonishes me. And leaves me despondent.
Polls seem to show that Winston has taken the ‘strong leader’ mantle in the Coalition. I don’t see anyone in the opposition parties effectively standing up to him and winning a ‘strong leader’ reputation. I don’t think that debates in Parliament carry much weight in altering public perceptions and I look forward to future campaigns of opposition parties changing the balance of yellow, blue and black political posts in my media feeds.
Yes I mean how many people clamour for the leader that is loud, charismatic, emotional and/or authoritarian? Is that really what leadership is? Some part of me Bill tells me it's all also a lost cause. And I can only summarise it as "people get the governments they contributed to"
When I was a kid I can clearly remember my mother saying (and mum never swore) bloody Holyoake.
Supercala-etc. Well writ. I hope that the new government is brutal with its plans for the first 100 days, they have a lot to fix, or unfux might be a better verb
The current government seems to be operating with this type of rear guard action in mind though too - hence the 10 year contracts and the rushing of nearly every law under urgency. Dangerous times.
Very wise. Thank you
That is a lot MT! I’m going out on a limb here and going to say that chippy is going to hold them back from achieving better at the next election. No matter how much he leads it is just too easy to chuck COVID out there and flash people back to having their “freedom “ curtailed. He is terminally damaged with enough of the electorate ( in my opinion). Other than that labour stuffed up because they relented to pressure from opposition from inside and outside of their party. They should have taxed the surplus out of the economy when they increased the limits for COVID relief as an example. It should have been framed that way from the start, take it if you need it but if you didn’t need it we will tax it back off you. It was national who pushed them to increase the limits of subsidies, which ended up feathering the nests of their constituents.
I don't deny errors were made but I think this is part of it too - I can forgive much more if the intentions are fine, and I'm also looking at the bigger picture here, and the results that were never truly publicised.
As to giving in the pressure of the opposition, I think there's always that hindsight is 20/20 aspect. They were always going to come under pressure to "help the businesses" and now we know that no matter what Labour do, they would have been attacked and painted with one brush.
Yes I know the framing is not great against the opposition, again I think the outcome was fine , just the government now bashes them with it due to the “ mountain” of debt they “ran “ up
That's the benefit of hindsight thing too, and I think Labour underestimated just how dirty this lot of politicians are.
I agree. The issue post-2020 Labour is suffering from, is not simply propaganda from National, but their response to that propaganda. Instead of following their own messaging strategist (Anat Shenker-Osorio) that helped Jacinda win in under 7 weeks saying that Labour will win if they push more unapologetic left wing policies with better messaging, instead they are keeping some of Nationals policies (gang patch ban) and keeping silent about their own.
This a foolish strategy
1. As Anat Shenker-Osorio pointed out "don't check the temperature, change it" which is to say: to win an election you do not chase the centre or the right, you get them to chase you. Do not give them what they want, get them to want what you are offering.
2. Because if someone is lying about you is it better to tell the truth or to keep silent? If all people hear about you is the lie then that is the more effective propaganda and that's probably why the polls are often neck and neck. Keeping silent (waiting to announce policies) doesn't dispel a lie, the truth (announcing at least some major policies) does.
https://open.substack.com/pub/kaimataara/p/from-fringe-to-fundamental?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=4wgs7b
Damn strong stuff. The misinformation machine is so strong against Labour. My biggest gripe with Ardern’s government was there was no real moves made on the tax system and I really think Hipkins sealed their loss by ruling it out. As much as I want this government to get out I really feel that unless Labour goes more explicitly left they won’t be able to differentiate themselves from National enough. This is also why I don’t really think it’s useful for them to punch left against the Greens. They’ve got enough misinformation thrown against them without Labour amplifying any of it.
All that said, you made me reconsider my position on Labour the last few days. Thanks for that.
In solidarity my friend.
I agree they need to differentiate. I suspect they're constrained by the maths, and before we all say "tax everyone to hell," a large number of people vote just on wallets. Anyway the policy discussion is important. Also agree on them not needing to punch against Greens. As to Ardern, I suspect she underestimated the flow and pressure of politics, and she is fundamentally someone who likes cohesiveness and "bringing people along". She's not a coward but it's that type of...democratic values that leads her to be who she is and therefore do what she did. Don't misunderstand - before I engaged with politics, I rolled my eyes at her on TV....I didn't know any better or appreciate what she was facing. As to Hipkins, I think his CGT call was a mistake but we all say that with hindsight. That's part of what annoys me about analysts, using hindsight is a cheat's way....it can inform us, but to pretend we always knew better I think is also a little misleading.
Thank you for commenting, in solidarity, my friend.
This is great MT. The other one is Labour needs a new leader. Doesn't work like that. Just like policy, it is up to members. I think the greatest danger to us all is NZ First who are looking to scoop up former Labour voters. Not me! I'm old enough to remember when NZ First went with National and took all six Maori seats. I cried because I knew what It meant for workers who had been battling it out since Bill Birch's/Bolger's ECA in 1990.
I remember that well Winston said he would go with Labour & then reneged.
Darien, I was on Bluesky and so many around feel like .. the right, so many demanding this, demanding that, without even understanding the complexities at play nor the risk. I think I'm more deflated by those type of people because it reminds me that it's not just the "right" that have blinkers. Thanks for caring for so many years.
My experience of campaigning many years ago tells me that "swing" voters are likely to swing just once. Why should that be? Your guess is as good as mine, but I think one of the reasons might be related to a desire of most people to see themselves as "well off". Once they've bought a house—no matter the size of the mortgage—they see themselves as having moved into an "upper" bracket, so even if their antecedents have been Labour forever, they tend to swing to support the most popular conservative party. If I am correct, then those who will swing in the next election will likely have never done so in the past, and this is likely the only time they will do so.
This suggests to me that most voters do not give much thought to the politics confronting them. They have to be jolted out of their complacency to think about what is happening to them, and give active thought to whether or not they can change it. It also suggests that most are also selfish. They do not look very far outside their own box.
We know, just from voting statistics, that only a small proportion of the electorate will determine the outcome of the election. But we need to remember that it will be a different part of that proportion which will change their allegiance in any election. There is a larger proportion of the electorate which determines the strength of a major party. It doesn't change, and it doesn't determine the outcome of an election. But it has to be catered for. By and large that proportion does not "think"—it doesn't have to, it has long-since made up its mind, but political parties ignore them at their peril. Thinking they are being ignored will piss-off voters quicker than just about any other politics. And it will probably be something quite trivial that causes it. In 1945 my parents (with my sister and me) lived in a state house in Mt Roskill. They were visited one day by the local member (Labour) and his wife. They asked if they could inspect the house. They said they were trying to ensure that it was up to scratch. At the end of the visit, I was told that my mother overheard the MP's wife say that she could happily live in the house. My mother immediately asked what they meant and was informed that we would get a brand new house and that the MP and his wife were going to move into ours. I was told that the proverbial fan ground to a halt and we never shifted out and the MP never shifted in. BUT—my parents never voted Labour again. My mother died in her 90th year about 13 years ago. The moral is that a tiny, relatively trivial suggestion was not trivial to my parents. Ironically, we moved from that house about 12 months later when my parents bought a small business.
It has always been clear to me that policy needs to be shaped around this sort of thinking. Which raises another issue. Why on earth would Labour release any details of policy at present? By not releasing anything they can make National whine about having nothing to attack them on. Well, good! It also means that Labour does not have to fight the lies National and ACT will construct about their policies longer than is necessary.
A propos of which, MT, you raised the subject of the expenditure Labour undertook during the pandemic years, and commented on the lies being spread about it at present.
I recently commented on the effect of that expenditure in my recent Substack, "New Zealand in a World of Giants."
"However, while New Zealand’s debt-to-GDP ratio has more than doubled, the per-capita debt, at NZ$16,718, remains the lowest among the nations compared here, even though the sharp increase from a low base represents a not insignificant burden. The larger economies, already carrying substantial debt, saw their per-capita liabilities increase considerably. The United States, for instance, saw its total federal debt reach US$33.1 trillion by the end of fiscal year 2023157, pushing the burden to nearly US$100,000 per person. The UK′s public sector net debt reached £2.7 trillion, or around £39,300 per person156, half that of the US and more than 5 times New Zealand’s debt."
Let National and ACT lie their way out of those figures.
Always thankful for your comments Gary
This is a very detailed expose of the fact that noone really knew why they hated Labour so were to happy to believe all the talk of "fiscal cliffs" and such like making it all sound as if we were in terrible danger! Unfortunately it needed a very strong leader to stand firm and show us all what you have just produced in this writing. Also I think they might have benefited by not making covid "that which should not be talked about" and defended their record and actions proudly - people have forgotten how they essentially voted Labour in the previous election on its strength of management during an unprecedented crisis.
Agree with all here Dave. The only factor not here is that the media really pummelled Labour and mainly presented right wing viewpoints.
And the msm continue to pummel Labour by minimising exposure and reinforcing mis/disinformation spread by coalition partners. Look out next election the msm will be merciless.
Absolutely! A strange phenomenon worldwide seems to be business owned media's manic support for right wing neo liberalism and discard of the truth. Was a time when even privately-owned media gave genuine balanced commentary.
Yes it's getting more and more corrupt. Brexit was a turning point - as was Trump's first win. For once the right realised they could do whatever they want so long as they can fool enough people.
Unfortunately RNZ is no better of late (Susan Edmunds article pushed misinformation & this headline is a lie - https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/572567/adopting-australia-s-inflation-target-insane-economic-illiteracy-finance-minister)
And everytime I watch 1News bulletins, I wonder why I bother, 90% fluff or bought overseas segments and very little meaningful analysis.
Quite a dangerous situation.
I even noticed on TV 1 last night they had big news about a few Israelis being killed in a bus but not so much news until just recently the killing the Israelis have unleashed on Gaza if that's not Zionists talking I'll go hee.